A reply to one mail

Posted on October 16, 2008February 6, 2019 by Jagoinvestor

This post is most probably the one on which i didnt worked hard . This is just an email reply from my side to one of my friend who queried me regarding his Endowment Policy package which an agent has created for him .

The policy looks like this … 15 small polices of 1,00,000 each which will mature one by one every year after 27 years and will act as yearly pension in his old age

His mail :

>>>

On Wed, Oct 15, 2008 at 9:37 AM, ajay patel wrote:

15 policies of Rs. 1 Lakh each, starting from sept 2007, first policy matures in 2034 and others follow every year from there on.
Cover of 15 Lakh is for life time. There is an extra Rs 500,000 accidental insurance along with it till the age of 70(2053) (if the world exists till that time).
Annual premium of Rs. 42,000 till 2034, a total amount of 3,400,000 will be received from maturity of these policies.

Say after ten years, I see myself earning around 2.5-3 lacs per month. with one child (if i get married :))

My Reply :

now lets see some of the facts for you to ponder .

Starting from 2007 you are paying 42,000 each year till 2034 (for 27 years) . You will receive money starting from 2034 – till 2049 (15 years , each policy matures) .

Points to note :

– You are paying 42,000 and then its locked for 27 years
– You are getting maturity value of each policy per year , just like a annual income(around 2.25 Lacs/year ie : 34/15 , which is not taxable (you keep all the money).
– You are getting Tax exemptions under sec 80C for this.

I think these are the points you have to agree , because they are not opinion , they are facts .

Some of the flaw or issues with this plan are following , which you never considered at the time of taking this .

– The premium you are paying each year equals to your current monthly salary , also you said that you see your self earning 2.5-3.0 lacs (6 times , your current) per year just after 10 years from now . i am not sure what kind of figures will it be after 27 years . At that time , the money which you get from the policy should not last even 2 months . Considering your expenses currently at 25,000 per month (considering you are married and have children) . the same expenses will rise to 1.2 lacs assuming 6% inflation (also remember that the expenses will keep rising each year ie : 1.66 , 1.77 , 1.9 … 4.2 lacs , whereas the money you get each year will be around constant 2.25 lacs only , this may look unimaginable , but ask your father to grandfather about the monthly expenditure of family before 25 years , i am sure it should be 5% of current, people always forget inflation).

– The insurance provided by this policy is so less that you are highly under insured . What can your loved one do with 15 lacs today ? Will it be sufficient to replace you ? If you consider time after 10 years (when you think you will earn 2.5-3 lacs / month , will the insurance money be sufficient to cover the dependents ? When you will be of age 60+ , the insurance amount is able to meet not more than 9-10 months expenses .

Having this policy is as good as not having it . The issue is not that Can there be policy better than this? ,The main problem is what kind of value is this giving to you . Is the benefit provided by this policy after 27-42 years is much less than than the pain you are getting by paying hefty premium now .

With the same money (42,000) , let me see what can i plan for you with same money .

Lets first take a most conservative way (which is undebatabely safe).

You take an insurance of 50,00,000 (50 lacs) for 30 years and pay a premium of just 10.5k per year . You are left with 32k per year which you put in

1. PPF account

In PPF the money 32k @8% will become 2,55,000 in 27 years and you will get this money every year (total 38 lacs till end) , till age 66 ( In Endowment policy it was 2.25 lacs)

2. In MF considering 12% return

32k invested will become 6.83 lacs in 27 years , so you invest every year 32k and get 6.83 lacs just after 27 years of payment . so it can provide a regular income of 6.23 lacs after 27 years for continuous 15 years till you are 66 .

3. In Mutual funds considering 15% return

The amount would be 13.93 Lacs , every payment of 32,000 will become 13.93 lacs.

Question: How realistic are these mutual funds returns ?
Answer : Over the history no asset has returned more than equity over long term . India Equity markets have returned 17.5% CAGR annually (since inception) . 15% is a very realistic return considering the money is invested for long term like 15+ years . Equity investments risk are inversely proportional to tenure of investments .

After 30 years you will not even need Insurance , because this money will be available every year . and i am assuming that you will earn enough till than that you don’t need insurance .

Some other things to ponder are :

Investing in your Endowment policy does not give you any flexibility of stopping or missing your premiums . In case of PPF or mutual Funds , you can be very flexible and stop for 2 years if you want money to be utilized some where else .

The plan which i told you has everything which you had in that endowment policy , even more than that . its like Buying Nokia 2600 @20,000 when you have iPhone available at same price , you just didn’t knew where you can get it 🙂 . Ok , i know that was pathetic analogy , but i need some platform to show that i can think .

So better stop those policy and take the loss of premiums which you paid , anyways you are not going to be affected now , and life will be normal as it was .

I have done nothing extraordinary here , but some calculation based on some common sense , which is not common .
disagreements are welcome .

– manish

– Show quoted text –

—
Manish Chauhan
Bangalore
https://finance-and-investing.blogspot.com/

Lets understand some basic things here . No matter what people tell you or design things for you , Always calculate and apply the simple formula’s which will give you certain numbers, which can be used as benchmarks by you .

Some must know formula’s : https://finance-and-investing.blogspot.com/2008/09/3-most-important-formulas-you-should.html

Please post your comments .

Term of the Day Archives

Posted on October 9, 2008February 6, 2019 by Jagoinvestor

This page contains all the “Term of the Day” posted on this blog earliar .

1. Short Selling

Short Selling : Short Selling refers selling of shares without owning them . If you short sell a stock , you first sell them at higher price and later you buy them (cover them) back at lower price .Lot of times you feel that markets will go down , at that time you short sell a stock . People who deal in Derivatives can either Sell the Futures or Buy PUT options . Short Selling can offer tremendous returns in short frame , because bear markets are markets fall with much speed and momentum compared to rising market . Read more

2. Derivatives

Derivatives : Derivatives are contracts whose value depend on value of some other thing. Examples are Futures and Options . Value of Stock is independent , But value of Futures or Options depend on the movement of Stock . Derivatives are dangerous Instrument and not recommended for Starters . In India People are attracted towards Derivatives because of its Return potential , but they underestimate its Risk potential and its ability to paralyse investor or trader financially , Better to learn first and then enter in Derivatives. Read more

3. P/E Ratio

P/E Ratio : P/E ratio is a reflection of the market’s opinion of the earnings capacity and future business prospects of a company. Companies which enjoy the confidence of investors and have a higher market standing usually command high P/E ratios. This ratio indicates the extent to which earnings of a share are covered by its price. If P/E is 5, it means that the price of a share is 5 times its earnings. In other words, the company’s EPS remaining constant, it will take you approximately five years through dividends plus capital appreciation to recover the cost of buying the share. The lower the P/E, lesser the time it will take for you to recover your investment. Its one of the most imortant Ratios you can look at .

Price/Earnings Ratio (P/E) = Price of the share / Earnings per share

4. ETF

ETF : ETFs are a basket of securities which tracks an underlying and are traded on a recognised stock exchange. Examples are Nifty Beas (this tracks Nifty) and Gold ETF’s (this tracks Gold prices) . Read More

Soon there will be Silver ETF’s in India .

5. FMP

FMP : FMP’s are close ended mutual funds , similar to FD’s but much more tax efficient and with marginally superior returns , but they have there own risks . The returns offered by FMP’s is indicative and not guaranteed. They come from 1 month maturity to 1 yrs maturity . In year 2008 , FMP have done very badly because of defaults . Read here for more

6. Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis : A method of evaluating securities by analyzing statistics generated by market activity, such as past prices and volume. Technical analysts do not attempt to measure a security’s intrinsic value, but instead use charts and other tools to identify patterns that can suggest future activity. It is generally used by people who want to take advantage of short term price movement. Technical Analysis can make you a better than average Investor

7 . Demat Account

Demat Account : Demat account is an account where shares are stored electronically . Just like Bank account deposits money , Demat account deposits your shares . Now a days , you cant hold shares in physical form , every share has to be in physical form . A person can only hold a single Demat account (trading account is different) .

8. Trading Account

Trading Account : Trading Account is an account through which you can buy and sell things on stock market . Dont confuse it with Demat account , Demat account is just a place of storage . Trading account is a platform which provides you a service of buying and selling things . You can have multiple trading accounts , which will all be connected with your single demat account .

9. Futures

Futures : Futures are the contract which gives you a right to buy or sell a specified commodity of standardized quality at a certain date in the future, at a market determined price . For Example, If you buy Reliance Futures for June series, you will get a right to buy specific number of Reliance shares at a fixed price on last Thursday of June . The future date is called the delivery date or final settlement date . Read more

10. NAV

NAV : NAV is a price of a mutual fund unit . You can see it just like a share price of company . Mutual funds invest the money in market and its tracked by NAV , if investments goes up , NAV goes up and vice versa . Generally NAV value starts with Rs 10 .

There is a myth among investors that low NAV mutual funds are better than high NAV mutual funds, which is totally wrong .

11.

Price Vs Value – The difference between Price and Value by investment perspective

Posted on October 8, 2008February 6, 2019 by Jagoinvestor

A Rose can be of more value than a Dress to your Wife or Girlfriend on Valentines Day. Even though that Rose was very less in Price compared to a Dress.

Today we will discuss things about investment products from a different perspective – Value and Price.

What is Price and Value?

Price : Price is the amount of money needed to purchase something.
Value : Value is the worth or Importance of something.

An Example

We pay Rs.8/Kg (20 cents/Kg) for Salt as part of our Groceries, Will we stop using it if its price rises to Rs.100/Kg or even Rs.400/Kg. May be not !!! Why ? Because the Value of Salt even then will be Very high, compared to the price we pay for it. Considering that, its a very cheap product.

As a personal Example, I recently bought a second hand mobile (Nokia 6610) to keep at my home as a land line just for Rs.800 (worth 8,500 at time of buying, excellent condition). The price i paid for it was much much less than the value it would provide to me. So i consider it as one of the best investments made till date.

By cheap I mean its Price vs Value is very high.

Cheapness (P) = Value provided by P / Price we pay for P.

The same way there can be things for which we pay high amount, they don’t have high value for us.

Please understand that it depends on individual where something is of great value or not. For example for me, an expensive Mobile set with 134 different things costing Rs.10,000 is low in value and high in price. I don’t buy things like that, but a digital Camera worth 12K a value buy for me (because of my interest in Photography)

So, in short we can say “Price is What we pay actually, and Value is what are ready to Pay”

We understand this in our daily Life, but we forget this simple rule when it comes to money and investing. Most of the time we invest in things which we should not because of this basic rule, but we are carried away by emotions or simple stupidity.

Watch this video to learn more about the difference between Price and Value:

Let us now see Some of the products which are really High Value, Low price

Term Insurance :

Term Insurance is one of the best example for this.

“How much are you ready to pay as yearly premium for Rs.50,00,000 Cover for 25 yrs tenure?”.

This is a question I ask a lot of my friends in there 20-30’s. And I am amazed to see that even with a miser mind they tell me at least twice the amount what it really costs. Everyone said 2k/month or min Rs.20,000/year. The actual cost is not more than 13-14k, in fact the best price is 10,112 for 30 yrs tenure from AEGON RELIGARE Life Insurance (Click Here to read more on this).

This clearly shows that it cost way less than the expectations of people and what people are ready to pay for it. The value offered by Term Insurance is more than what it costs.

Endowment Policies :

I am not sure if its my hatred for Endowment Policies or they really deserve my criticism every time, Or may be there are both the reasons. We pay so heavy price for Endowment polices and the value provided by them is almost nothing. Its a product designed for Wealth Creation, but wait … not for investor but for the Insurance company. (Click here to read more on Badness of Endowment Policies)

The other products I would rate in category of Cheap and Expensive are :

Cheap financial products:

Term Insurance

SIP investments in Equity Mutual Funds

PPF

Good Stocks in low markets (Like current markets, Buy Reliance, Infosys and Jaiprakash Associates for Rs. 1,00,000 each today and your retirement planning is probably Done !! If you are around 25 and retiring at 60)

An interest free loan given to a close or a very good friend. (even if you don’t get any interest, you get some emotional satisfaction or valuable relationship which is more important).

Expensive financial products:

Endowment Policies

Bank FD (at the time of High inflation)

NSC

Most of the stocks in High Markets ( not true for all stocks but most of them) – A high interest loan given to someone whom you don’t trust much. (Even if you get good interest, there is risk of loosing money)

Every time you invest your money its important to understand the price of it and value of it. If you find that its cost is less than what you are ready to pay, consider it cheap and go for it and not in the other case. Price and Value depends on Situation, time, age and other factor, don’t forget it.

Stock Market Investments

Most of the successful investors become one because they invest in stocks which are trading at price lower than they deserve, which market eventually finds out later. Currently In this markets Reliance is trading at 1400 (Oct 11, 2008), the it was trading at 2300 before a month, and has lost almost 40-50% in a month.

Considering it is going to start its OIL exploration and other things, its a good stock to own and at an excellent price. Its price is less and its value. Which makes it a good investment regardless of what is going to happen next month or next quarter. Sooner or Later it will turn out to be a good investment and reward its investors.

Same is with Jaiprakash Associates, ICICI Bank, DLF, Ranbaxy and other similar blue chip stocks.

Summary

When you analyse some product, stock, mutual fund, Home (Real estate) or anything for investment matter or even for general shopping, always consider value and price for it.

Disclaimer : Any stock discussed on this article is not a recommendation. Please analyse it yourself and then invest. It can also result in losses.

What do you think about this article? Do you like it?

Situation of Stock Market on Oct 9, 2008

Posted on October 8, 2008February 6, 2019 by Jagoinvestor

Bloodbath in Stock Market

As I write this article on Oct 9, 2008, Sensex is below 11000 (10850) … Most of the Mutual fund investments returns (since peak of Dec 2007 – Jan 2008) must be down by 40-50% (lump sum investment) and 25-35% (if SIP). Looks like Sensex is heading towards it original value of 6000 or 7000 which will bring losses to 60+%.

Though most of the investors know in theory what to do in these situation, most of them will still not buy, Now the physiological investing problem happens, For long term investors its the best time to invest, but no one will take the plunge after burning there hands so badly.

Do Indian Markets have many reasons to Decline further?

Remember, the global markets are looking bad, not Indian. Indian markets are just following US and European markets because they are the “Big Boss”.

The US markets and European markets are the culprit for the global slowdown. The sub-prime crisis related issues will have deep impact on US and global investment banking firms. India or other Asian countries are just bearing the pain along with global stock markets.

Yes we are in Bear markets, in fact every country stock markets are, but the bearishness of markets are exaggerated because oh high oil and US sub-prime crisis and subsequent Bank Failures.

India is not short of its local good news like

Nuclear deal

Stable growth of more than 8% p.a

Inflation now coming down from its high (and as Oil comes down, the inflation will come down further)

Strong Corporate Earning and Many companies on the verge of setting global standards (Reliance starting its oil production soon, etc etc)

Once things are in control (should be soon, but no one can be sure), another bull market should be more exciting than the last one. Prices will move like rockets and people who will benefit most will be one who will do investments in these down markets.

Is it the right time for investments?

This questions was answered by many pundits when Sensex was around 15,000-16,000. Some said YES, some said NO. People who did investments must be thinking why they did it and people who did not must be happy for not investing that time. The scenario could have been exactly opposite if markets would have gone up.

So what do you do now?

The best idea is to invest a part of the money now, If the markets go down from here, You still have another part of your money in hand which you can invest later and again invest more if it goes down further. It will ensure that your average cost is not very high, and a decent run in markets will result in profits.

If markets go up after you buy some mutual funds or shares, you at least are in profit and not LOSS. which is a privilege now a days in Market. Once there is a good confidence that markets are stable and wont fall further, you can then do rest of your investments.

Remember, Don’t try to make profits in stock markets, just try to avoid losses and make sure that you preserve your capital. If you can do that much, profits will be at your feet.

As Warren Buffet said “We need to take very less correct decisions in Life, as far as we make sure that we don’t take many wrong ones”

Why buying an Endowment policy is not a good choice?

Posted on October 7, 2008February 6, 2019 by Jagoinvestor

Today we are going to see why Endowment policy should be avoided in any portfolio and how other things are much better than Endowment policy with the same cost .

The assumption is that you understand what are Endowment policies and What are Term Insurance Plans, if you don’t know click here to read about it

endowment policy

A look at the Endowment Policy

An Endowment policy would look like this for a 25 yrs old

Tenure : 30 yrs
Yearly premium : 31,000
Sum Assured : 10 Lacs
Maturity amount : 23.1 Lacs ( this you get when you survive full tenure, It includes the sum insured + Bonus accrued)

This data is from website of an Insurance company.

Q . How much money to be paid every year? How much will the person get in case of Death or Survival? What are the Risk factors?

Ans :

Tenure : 30 yrs
Money outgo : Yearly 31,000/yr
Money received In case of Death : 10,00,000
Money received In case of Survival : 23,100,000
Risk : Virtually no risk (The only risk is when the Insurance company goes bankrupt)

What is the interest earned on this investment? 31,000 per year for 30 years becomes 23,10,000.

Annuity formula is :

Maturity value = Amount paid per year * [ {(1+r)^n – 1}/r ] * (1+r)
Here n = 30 years
and r = rate of interest earned

Putting all these values

23,10,000 = 31,000 * [{(1+r)^30 -1}/r] * (1+r)

The value of r which satisfies this equation is 5.4. Which means that the interest earned by the investment in Endowment policy is mere 5.4%, which is truly pathetic by any standard in India at least. There is no investment product known which is known to pay so badly.

The reason why people feel that endowment policy are so good is that they also get insurance cover ( which is virtually useless because its so less that it does not even cover the financial dependents to even a fraction of what they need in reality)

So can we mix Insurance + investments product which can be better than supremely better than Endowment policies and still cost the same( or even less).

Now let us see that by spending same amount (30,000, 1,000- less than the endowment policy) every year for 30 yrs, can one achieve better than this.

Watch this detailed video in which the difference between Endowment policy and Term plan has been explained from basic concepts

1. For Safe Investor (Let us first see a almost 100% safe way to do this)

Term Insurance of 30 Lacs for 30 yrs : 6k
Investment of 24k in PPF for 30 yrs : 30 Lacs (this is assured returns, as its invested in govt backed PPF, which gives 8% post tax returns )

Amount invested = 30,000 per year for 30 years (same as Endowment policy)
Amount received on death : 30 Lacs + investments done in PPF
Amount received without Death : 30 Lacs (investments)

2. For Aggressive Investor ( A person who can take more risk that the former one)

Term Insurance of 70 Lacs for 30 yrs : 14,157
Investment of 17,843 ( 30000 – 14157) in ELSS for 30 yrs assuming 15% CAGR : 92 Lacs

Amount received on death : 80 Lacs + investments done in ELSS
Amount received without Death : 92 Lacs (investments)

Equity investments for long term are almost risk free.

So, we can see here than in any case term insurance + MF is supremely better than Endowment policies.

#Solution for People who have taken fresh policies

People who have already taken fresh policies and have not completed 3 yrs should just forget there payments and stop there premium payments. The profits of switching from Endowment to “Term + MF” will be far greater than the loss from leaving Endowment policies.

#Solution for People who have completed more than 3 yrs

Either convert your policies to Paid-up or just surrender your polices and take the Surrender value (take your call on what you are comfortable with)

#Solution for people near the Maturity

You have almost paid most of the installment, so better stick with it, but don’t forget to insure yourself to a respectable cover through term insurance

Summary

Endowment policies according to me are totally incorrect and worst product i have ever seen (ULIPS are not far behind). It is structured and presented in such a way that investors are attracted to it. Agents present them in such a fancy way and give judgements which make these policies look like must have products.

Disclaimer : The exact figures can differ, this is just a demonstration of how Endowment policies can not be better than Term Insurance + MF combo. All the Insurance premium are for Aegon Religare Life Insurance and Mutual funds payments are considered monthly (amount/12).

All the view on this article are personal, some people may disagree with it which is totally acceptable.

Aegon Religare Life Insurance – New hope for Indian Insurance Industry

Posted on October 6, 2008February 6, 2019 by Jagoinvestor

Aegon Religare Life Insurance which is recently renamed as Aegon Life Insurance is a new Player in Indian Insurance Market.

This company seems to have clear understanding about the Insurance Market and what India needs exactly, there main focus is on Term Insurance and that makes it respectable in my opinion, its not like other companies concentrating on Endowment and Money Back plans and tag them as Great Insurance products, which is nothing but Saving and investment products with a pinch of Insurance.

aegon life insurance

About Aegon Life Insurance

AEGON : Aegon is one of the largest life insurance and pension groups with market in over 20 countries (Americas, Europe and Asia) with 40 million customers. It has more than 160 yrs of experience.

RELIGARE : Religare is one of India’s leading integrated financial services groups. They have 1550 locations spread across over 460 cities and towns in India.

Products Offered by the Company

AEGON RELIGARE Life Insurance has excellent products as far as Term Insurance is concerned. They also have ULIP plans.

In Term Insurance they have the minimum rates for Term Insurance plans. You can check their Premium Calculator here. They have 3 different plans.

1. Level Term Plan :

In this cover remains same through out the Tenure. Premium for amount Rs.50,00,000 (50 Lacs) for 30 years.

Male/Female (25 yrs) : 9,000 per year
Male/Female (30 yrs) : 12,150 per year

2. Increasing Term Plan :

Cover increases by 5% every year. Premium for amount Rs.50,00,000 (50 Lacs) for 30 years.

Male/Female (25 yrs) : 13,800 per year
Male/Female (30 yrs) : 19650 per year

3. Decreasing Term Plan :

Cover decreases by 5% per year (Tenure = 20 years max). Premium for amount Rs.50,00,000 (50 Lacs) for 20 years.

Male/Female (25 yrs) : 7,100 per year
Male/Female (30 yrs) : 7,900 per year

One can choose the plan as per there requirement. The best part is that there rates are very very low. This Term insurance is worth a consideration.

Click here to understand why you need Term Insurance and not Endowment or Money Back Plans.

The amazing truth of partial Profit booking

Posted on September 29, 2008February 6, 2019 by Jagoinvestor

In this article I’m going to talk about importance of partial profit booking. The scope of this article is only risky investments where we have risk of loss. It’s not related to Debt products where we are sure of returns.

Partial profit booking is relevant if you invest in Shares, mutual funds or derivative products.

What is the main goal of investments in Equity?

When we ask this question, most of the people would get it correct, Answer is Capital appreciation or fast growth of money. But most of the investors concentrate so hard on maximizing profits that they underestimate risks and that’s the main reason for most of the losses they make.

The biggest goal while doing Equity investments has to be “Capital Preservation” and only then you must think about any profits. So the main concentration must be on “Capital Preservation”. If you don’t concentrate on capital preservation, it can erode because of continuous losses and then you will have to try for profits just to get back to level you started.

Suppose by taking a lot of risk you can either earn 60% or lose 60%. If you get profits, it’s great. But if you lose 60%, then you will have to earn 150%, just to get back to your starting Capital. Whereas if you take a less risky route where you just earn 10% or 15%, your money will grow slowly and steadily, it will soon increase due to compounding effect.

We are investors, we are not god, we can’t predict markets move accurately. We can only avoid bad moves and take decisions which can help us minimize our risk and losses. We will soon see how Partial booking of profits can is so important while doing investments.

What is partial booking of Profits?

When we invest our money and if we get some profit and then we are not sure what can happen next, we book a part of it to minimize our risk. The main idea here is that if we gain some profits, we should book some part of it to make sure that we already got that profit in hand and not just in mind.

For Example

Ajay invested 1,00,000 in shares, which grew by 20% in 6 months. Now he is not sure what can happen, Markets are uncertain and now there might be 40% profit or 40% loss (just for example). He has 3 options here

1. If he does not book partial profits

His investments grew to 1,20,000 and now he can get profit or loss of 40%. Let us see the range of his return.

In case of 40% profit, he will get 1,20,000 * (1 +.4) = 1,92,000
In case of 40% loss, he will get 1,20,000 * (1 – .4) = 72,000

Total investment: 1,00,000

Returns: In range of -28% to +92%

2. If he books partial profits

Here we assume that he books his 50% profits. His investments grew to 1,20,000 and books profit of 10,000, he get backs 60,000 back and rest 60,000 is still invested. Let us now see the range

In case of 40% profit, he will get 60,000 * (1 +.4) = 96,000
In case of 40% loss, he will get 60,000 * (1 – .4) = 36,000

As he has got back 60,000 back earlier, the actual range will be

If 40% profit: 1,56,000
If 40% loss: 96,000

Total investment: 1,00,000
Returns: -4% to +56%.

So there is choice between -28% to +96% or -4% to 56%. The good idea will always be the second option. Because the second option is more close to giving positive returns. It saves us from risk. It makes sure that even though less, we get positive returns.

To understand more on why avoiding bad decisions is better than making good ones, Click here

Let us see another example :

Just before the NSG waiver meeting, Robert invested 35,000 in options, he was very sure that markets would rise. Just after news came about NSG waiver, markets were suddenly up and He was in 12k profit overnight. This was a positive news for market and he wanted to remain invested.

He was very sure that market would rise further for next few days and his money would grow to 60-70k. People who are familiar to option trading will know that 30k can become 60k or 90k in a single day.

Robert was so confident that he did not book partial profits. Next day there was Lehman Brothers Collapse and it was a great shock to world. From next day stock markets fell and his investments fell by 90% in 2-3 days. His money grew from 35,000 to 47,000 and then fell to 8,000 in 3 days. Now he was in 27,000 loss.

What if he would have booked partial profits?

If he would have booked 50% profits. It means he invested 35k which grew to 47k and he takes out 50% of his investments, He should have taken out 23k and left 24k invested. In that case even if markets feel by 80%, His 24k would become 5k. Remember here, that he has already booked half of his profits and his exposure has reduced by 50%, which will help him in minimizing losses.

Total investments = 35,000
Final value = 23k (booked earlier) + 5k = 28,000

Loss : 7,000

Summary

Markets are uncertain and volatile. If we get profits anytime, make sure that they are partly booked, By doing that, you make sure that you have actually got some profit materialized and reduced your exposure to investments after it has gone up. If your investments start falling again, you will suffer some loss, but that loss can be compensated by the profits you have already booked.

By partially booking profits you reduce your risk for huge losses, at the same time you also cut your chances of making large profits, which is fine. Concentrate on cutting and avoiding losses and risk and not making profits. Profits will automatically come once you know how to manage your risk.

How to hedge your Portfolio using Derivatives

Posted on September 24, 2008February 6, 2019 by Jagoinvestor

When it comes to invest in equities or mutual funds lots of people becomes concern about their investments. This article is surely for you if you invest in Equities (Direct shares or Equity Mutual funds). In this article I’m going to tell you how to hedge your portfolio using Derivatives.

Risk Management of Portfolio using Derivatives

Many people might have seen their investments go down to anywhere between 20-50%, if they invested in Indian Stock markets around Dec 2007 or Jan 2008, and they might be wondering if it will go more down in value .

Just like we know take life Insurance to cover the risk of Life, Home insurance or car insurance to cover the risk if anything goes wrong, Can we also take Portfolio insurance?

What does insuring the portfolio means?

What does insurance means? It means securing something from some event which can cause loss or damage. We ensure our Lives, our homes, our Car. What happens when nothing happens to our lives, Home or Car.? We pay a small price for it and that is a kind of fees, which we pay for the security.

In the same way, we can also insure our portfolio, we can make sure that our loss is limited, the loss is always limited. If you are one of those who invested in Equity mutual funds or Shares during 2007 or Jan 2008, and you are sitting on a loss of 30-60%, you will understand this very well.

Anyone who invested Rs.1,00,000 in stocks or mutual funds has loss of anything from 30,000 to 60,000 (depending on his investments). Just wonder if they could insure their portfolio and make sure that there loss cannot go beyond a certain limit. That would be wonderful. We are going to discuss this today.

How to insure your portfolio?

There is no specific product or service for this , you have to manage it using Options (Derivative Products). ( Read it in Detail)

I assume that you now understand what are Options and how do they work , what are call and put options and what is expiry date, in case you have not read about it, please read it at above links (try first link to get basic info).

If you have invested in Mutual Funds

Ajay has invested Rs.2,00,000 In Equity mutual funds in Aug 2008, Nifty is around 4,200. He has invested his money for 4 months and would like to withdraw his investments in Jan 2009. He is a smart investor and knows that markets can crash and there is no limit to how much down it can go, so he decides to minimize his risk.

For this he has bought Nifty 4200 PA DEC-2008 trading at 200, for which he spent Rs.10,000 (Rs.200 * 50 lot size).

Now let’s see 3 different cases and what happens to his portfolio

1. Markets boom and goes up to 5,000 : Nifty has gone up by 20%

I am assuming that his investments followed and his Rs.2,00,000 has grown to Rs.2,50,000

Value of his Nifty PUTS : 0

Profit from investments : 50,000
Loss in Puts : 10,000

Total Profit : 50,000 – 10,000 = Rs.40,000

2. Markets Crash by 25% and nifty goes down to 3,100.

His investments follow and now its value is around 1,40,000, but his PUTS will be valued at 1,100 (4200-3100). So its value at the end would be 1,100 * 50 = 55,000.

Loss in investments : 60,000
Profit in PUTS = 45,000 (55,000 – 10,000 investment)

Loss = Rs.15,000

Here you can see that Out of his loss of 60,000, 45,000 is covered from PUTS.

3. Nothing happens and markets are still at 4,200.

His investments will be almost same, and his PUTS will expire with value 0.

Profit from investments : 0
Loss from Options : 10,000

Total loss : Rs.10,000

In all the 3 cases, we should note that in all the cases his Losses are minimized.

Let us also take an example of Shares.

Ajay bought 300 shares of Reliance @2,000 on 1st Jun 2008. He wants to sell these shares around Dec 2008.

He senses that markets are uncertain, so he buys 4 lots of RELIANCE 2,000 PUTS DEC 2008 @100. One lot of Reliance options has 75 shares, that’s the reason he buys 4 lots, so that he has total 300 shares control.

What does it mean? It means that on Dec 2008, he has the right to see 300 shares of reliance @2,000 and for this right he has paid Rs.100 for each share.

The maximum loss for him is now Rs.100 per share.

Let us see the 3 cases.

1. Shares price has gone up to 2,500.

Profit in shares = 500 * 300 = 1,50,000
Loss in Puts = 100 * 300 = 30,000

Total profit : 1,20,000

2. Shares price remain same at 2,000

Profit in shares : 0
Loss in Puts : 100 * 300 = Rs.30,000

Total Loss = 30,000

3. Shares price go down to 1,500

Loss in shares = 500 * 300 = 1,50,000
Profit in Puts = 500 * 300 = 1,50,000 – (30,000 investments)

Total Loss = 30,000

Again, we can see that in any case his loss is capped by 30,000 (5% of his investments of 6,00,000)

So options can be used to hedge or security. Watch this Youtube video to understand.

Summary

So the main idea of options is to use them to minimize the losses. If there is loss in investments, the puts will end up in profit and we will have very less loss or maybe we can get some profits only. The same way, if people do short selling they can use calls to minimize their losses.

So if you have invested in Shares or mutual funds and want to minimize your losses, use options or Futures as Hedging tools.

What are Gold Mutual Funds

Posted on September 16, 2008February 6, 2019 by Jagoinvestor

Gold Funds

In India Gold investment is considered as the traditional and most safe toll for investment. In this article I’ m going to tell you what are the alternatives to invest in GOLD other than physical Gold and GOLD ETF?

gold etf

What are Gold Mutual Funds?

Gold Funds are mutual funds which invests in stocks of companies engaged in gold mining & production. They do not buy gold directly but invests in stocks of companies engaged in gold mining and production world over.

When gold prices rise, the profitability of gold companies tends to increase more than proportionately, thereby providing long-term capital appreciation as stocks of gold companies have the potential to outperform gold prices by a significant margin over the long run.

Even though these are Gold funds, they can invest some part in Platinum and Silver.

According to the website, DSPML World Gold Fund has invested over 80 per cent in gold followed by platinum (9 per cent) and silver (5.10 per cent).

As per the December 2007 portfolio, Australia based Newcrest Mining is the top holding of the fund accounting for 8.4 per cent of the fund’s assets, followed by Barrick Gold (7.50 per cent), Kinross Gold (5.50 per cent) and Lihir Gold (5.20 per cent).

Why to invest in These Gold Funds?

Investors can benefit from the global demand for gold by investing in the precious metal and in companies involved in its production. In times when Equity markets are uncertain , Gold can be a good hedge. After Equity markets crash of Jan 2008, Gold Mutual funds were the best performers in any Mutual Funds category.

Also, this fund has an edge over GOLD ETF’s (What are GOLD ETF’s) as the portfolio of gold equities is actively managed as against the passive management in Gold ETFs.

Click here to know the returns of gold investment in past few years.

Taxation and Returns

From the taxation point of view, These fund will not enjoy the tax benefits that equity funds are eligible for. Long term gains would be taxable at 10% and short term gains would be taxable as per slab rates applicable to the investor.

Most of the Gold mining companies will be outside India and hence these funds would eventually be invested in dollar denominated assets, any currency fluctuation would directly affect your rupee return.

For example – the US dollar has depreciated by over 8% in the last 3-4 months against the rupee. Such appreciation of the rupee directly eats into a dollar return and investors should be aware of the currency risk that they undertake when they invest in this fund.

What are Gold Funds Available (In India)

– DSPML World Gold Fund
– AIG World Gold Fund

Read Why to invest in GOLD and What is the Best way
Read How to Calculate your Life Insurance ?
Also read Creating Wealth for retirement

I would be happy to read your valued comments. Thanks ………