Understanding the art of Asset Allocation and Portfolio Rebalancing

What is better? Equity or Equity + Debt In this article I will show you how always maintaining your Asset Allocation with Discipline helps you in long term.

We will see examples of Asset Allocation with Portfolio Rebalancing with Charts and a small Presentation. At the end we will conclude that Having A small part of Debt in your portfolio is better than having no debt.

Note: Make sure you read this article in one go, not in parts.

Data Collection and Making the Case Study

I gathered the NAV of SBI magnum Taxgain ELSS fund (click here to see which is the better fund that SBI Magnum) for last 10 yrs for each quarter. NAV are for 1 Jan 2000, 1 Apr 2000 and so on for each quarter (getting them each one by one from moneycontrol was really time consuming). So we have 38 NAV values from Jan 1 2000 to July 1 2009.

Scenario

  • Total Capital Invested : 1,00,000
  • Debt Return : 8% per/year , 2% per quarter (for simplicity) .
  • Equity Return : Calculated for per quarter (if Nav rose from 10 to 12 , return was 20%) .

Now I am comparing Two cases with and Without Asset Allocation and Portfolio Rebalancing .

Case 1 : Money was Invested One time in Equity and then it was left for Growing.
Case 2 : Money was Invested and Principles of Asset Allocation and Rebalancing was also used.

We are trying to Study which one of Case 1 and Case 2 is better. I did a Small Study and calculated the returns on different values of Asset Allocation like 20:80, 50:50 and 80:20 etc. Here are the findings:

Let us first look at the chart with Asset Allocation 80% Equity and 20% Debt which personally suits me and almost anyone in below 35 yrs age. (click to enlarge)


The Green Line is growth of investments with Asset allocation and Re-balancing (case 2), and Blue line is Growth of investments with no asset allocation (just equity, case 1). See how After 2 quarters, the Green line always was above Blue Line. Also see that final Value of Investments was higher in case 2 than case 1.

Also see, Magic of SIP , why SIP in mutual funds is best for long term.

The final Value of Investment kept increasing when Equity Allocation was raised from 0 to 70-80 and then started reducing when further increased it above 80.

See the Graph Below, this is a small presentation with each slide of separate Equity Allocation starting at 0% in equity and then increase by 10% every time. So first slide is 0% equity 100% debt, second slide is 10% equity and 90% debt and so on, it goes up to 100% equity and 0% debt.

It beautifully demonstrates the shift and change in value of Investment caused by Equity Allocation. To view it in the best way just have a look at each slide in one go and it will appear as a small video ;). Guys I worked hard on this.

Asset Allocation Effect (make fullscreen if you want)

Asset Allocation Effect

View more documents from manish.pucsd.

In a time span of 38 quarters (10 yrs approx), Case 2 consistently outperformed Case 1 i.e. if you see, in how many quarters Value of Investment was higher in Case 2 compared to Case 1, Case 2 beats case 1.

Below is the chart which shows in how many quarters Value of Investment was higher in Case 2 than case 1 i.e. for each quarter the case (case 1 or case 2) which has higher value of investment will get 1 point. You should also look at IV Ratio.

It was found that Case 2 always had higher points than Case 1 and Case 2 points kept increasing with higher Equity Allocation. The minimum Case 2 had was 19 points, when the asset allocation was 0% equity and 100% Debt. See the chart Below


Returns Were going up with higher Equity Allocation (around 70-80) and then fell further.

The final value of Investment was increasing for higher Equity Exposure till it was 80:20, and then it started Decreasing. See the chart below (click to enlarge)


To go deeper, I calculated some other returns.

Case 1 (Only Equity) returned

  • 13.2% CAGR in 9.5 yrs, see this video to learn how to calculate CAGR and other important formula’s
  • Value of 1,00,000 became 3,24,946 .

Case 2(Asset Allocation) returned

  • 13.1 % with 30:70
  • 15.11 % with 50:50
  • 15.67 with 70:30

In case you are new to Stock Markets, Download this Ebook on “How a Newcomer should Start in Stock Markets”, check out the Download Page for more.

What Does This Teach us

There are some important Learning’s here which we must understand well and have it deep rooted within us for our entire Life. This will help us in long term. Following are the Learning’s:

Learning 1# Equity Returns 12-15% over long term:

We can expect better returns from Equity in Long term, also average return over long term from Equity is around 12-15% as we saw in our case. So don’t expect returns like 30% or 40% every year. Once in a while you can get it but if you try harder and harder for it you tend to take unnecessary risk and hence screw yourself.

So better follow a disciplined approach and peacefully get 12-15% over long term. This does not apply to Traders and whole time participants in Stock Markets. They can/should/deserve to make more than 25-30% a year from stock markets.

Learning 2# Debt is extremely Important!!

Debt is an Important and vital component of Financial planning and your Investments. Love equity, Adore Equity and Worship Equity, but *don’t* forget Debt. Debt has eternal powers!!

Equity Combined with Debt can produce far superior returns over long term. In our examples above the best returns we got were for Equity and Debt ratio of 70-30 or 80-20 range.

Learning 3# Have a long term view to get results:

People who have recently started investing through SIP, ULIP or Direct Stock Investing need to understand that it takes time for the investment to grow!!

If you are doing right things like following specific Asset Allocation, Portfolio Re-balancing, Diversification, Investing with Discipline and control over yourself to avoid making stupid mistakes you need not worry at all. At the end you are the winner for sure. It will take time but things will show up.

You might see some person making 30% this or other year minting money from markets or from other investments and this can make you feel that you are left out but don’t feel bad, what you forget is that the other person is also exposed to extra risk which will kill him someday while you will be safe.

Learning 4# Returns is not Everything in Investments (my Favorite)

This is very important and you need to get this into your head and heart. Just like Money is not everything in life and there are other things like love, good health, Nature etc. etc. The same way in your financial life, you should have peace of mind. For which your investments value variation should not be wild enough to drive you crazy.

You should “aim for” and get “stable and good” returns which meet your financial goals, that’s it. Anything more than that will be a “treat” for you and should come to you without compromising your Needs in Life.

Suppose your money invested gives you return of 30%, -20%, 50%, -40%…. With these kinds of unstable and wild returns what will happen to your state of mind?

It will always be worrying over it and you will make mistakes in your financial decisions.

On the other hand if you get returns like 12%, -5%, 9%, 20%, -10% etc. It will not bother you much because there are no wild swings in your Investments value. At the end both will give you same kind of returns. The average returns would be same but the former case has higher variance of returns which “may be” good for your account, but it’s “not good” for your Mind and soul.

You will also notice in the charts above that with 70:30 equity : debt allocation, in 36 out of 38 quarters, the investments in case 2 were more than investments in case 1 which means that 95% it outperformed.

Learning 5# You should Start Early In Life

Ramit Sethi writes an excellent article on Why NOW is the best time for you to do anything , Be it early Investingg, Travelling, Meeting new people, whatever!! If you start early, you give enough time to your investments to grow and work for you. It also less risky if you start early because then the volatility is erased out in many years.

Partha shares a link for a study done on Similar subject at Accretus Solutions, Looks great link to me :).

** What do you think about This article, please leave your comment and suggest how did you like this article and what are your suggestions on making the investments in a much better way.

With this I will end this article, and dedicate this article to all the readers of this blog. I was working on this article for last 2-3 days, gathering data, doing calculations, creating charts, writing this article etc. etc.

It has come from hard work for some days, but the motivation behind it is my wonderful readers. Believe me or not, The person who has/will learned most from this article is ME, Thanks to you all – Manish

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How much Risk you should Take ?

Are you a High Risk taker? In this post we will talk about risk-taking in your Investments, be it share investing or mutual funds investing or just any kind of investing. Taking low risk can be equally disastrous as taking high risk. So in this article we will discuss how much risk you must take as an investor.

Financial Goals vs Risk you take

Firstly, we have to understand what is Risk-appetite? As retail investors we don’t understand the important issues attached with risk-taking.  We blindly invest in any investment product without considering if it suits our risk- appetite or not!

We have financial goals which we want to achieve in a defined time life “Buying a Rs 5 lac car in next 4 yrs” OR “Generate 20 lacs for my daughter education in next 15 yrs” and we figure out how much we should invest every month or year to meet our goals.

Depending on our Greed or Fear, we choose the products to invest in. Some choose Mutual funds, some choose Shares directly where as others may choose PPF or Bank Fixed deposits (Read how to find out Best Fixed Deposit for you). So it may happen that we may take risk which does not suit us.

This risk can either be over-risk or under-risk. Both are equally bad for us. You should read How Equity and Debt provides returns.

Problem with Over-Risk

Taking Risk that is much more than we can afford or take may lead to a situation where we are unable to meet our financial objective. This is a very bad situation. We in hope of getting better than “required” returns take unnecessary risks and increase our chances to meet failure.

Failure is okay but you should be ready for it. Taking higher than “required risk” can lead to this kind of situation. These issues happen because most of the times investors forget the first step of Financial Planning.

Example

Ajay wants to generate 5 lacs in 5 yrs for his Daughter Education. He can invest around Rs 6,000 per month (See this video presentation to understand how its calculated). To meet his goal he needs to get around 12% return annually. There are different ways of achieving this like

But what if he decides to invest his money in Sectoral Funds like Real Estate or Infrastructure or invests directly in Stocks without much idea of how things work?

This can either make him Much more than 5 lacs, may be 10 or 15 lacs OR it can be disastrous and he can lose his money and may not be able to generate even 3-4 lacs depending on the circumstances. Now this goal was something very important. He can not take risk for his daughter Education.

If it were a car or a vacation goal, I would have said “ok – go ahead”. But Education is a Need of life. He has to understand Difference between Needs and Wants . He has to understand where to take more risk and where to take less.

Problem with Under-Risk

Just like Over-risk, taking less risk has its own issues. Most of the people who invest in Endowment Plans or Bank FD for years suffer from this virus. If you take very low risk, you may not be able to achieve your goals at the first place. Read Why Endowment plans are bad to invest in.

Example

Robert wants to generate Rs 1 Crore for his retirement. He has 30 yrs and He can invest around Rs 2,000 for this in Mutual funds with SIP and this should be possible with Patience. He can take moderate risk but he thinks that equity markets are too risky and its something he should be away from.

He is a fan for Endowment plans and traditional Bank Deposits so he invests in these two instruments. He generates Rs 15 lacs from his Fixed deposits (before tax) and Rs 13-14 Lacs from Endowments plan with his 1,000 investments in each of them.

So at the end he has total of less than 30 lacs as Retirement Corpus. He has 30% of what he needs at the end. What are the issues here? He has to Compromise with the life Style and he cant enjoy his Post-work life as he wanted because of severe financial pressure. Because of fear and reluctance of taking “required” risk he has done un-repairable damage to his financial life.


Conclusion

Its very important to take the investments with our risk-capacity taking high risk can lead to situation when our returns are less than expected. Because of greed we sometimes take extra risk and only concentrate on the rosy picture and forget the part which looks bad. Its an Irony but most of the people think that somehow there are less chances of bad things happening to them.

The same way, taking too low risk can lead to under performance in returns and hence after you factor in Inflation and taxes you may be in a financially fatal situation you might have lost all your life believing that you are gaining (like in the example above).

Hence, you must take risk which is required for meeting your financial goals and also which you can take if things go wrong. Taking Over-risk is same as taking Low-risk. The best way to find if a Product Suits your Needs or Not is to Find the GFactor of that Financial Product.

Q. What do you think about “Required Risk” How should an investor estimate how much risk one should take?

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A Perfect Example of ULIP misselling

Recently I saw a perfect example of ULIP misselling. One of my friend’s parents gave their money to a close friend who was working for some Investment firm and assured them of doing great investments on their behalf.

The total money involved was more than 10 Lacs. I don’t know what else he did, but he bought a ULIP from their money and its the perfect example of miss-selling here. Lets see it in details.

ULIP misseling

So this agent buys a Canara HSBC ULIP.

  • The total premium yearly was around Rs 3 Lacs.
  • Premium Allocation charges are 48% in the first year.
  • The policy was stopped after 1 yr by the Family.
  • The Allocation chosen in the start was 70:30 (Equity : Debt).
  • Charges were not communicated while taking the policy.
  • No statement was sent them for next 8-9 months.

So may be they were not aware of important questions they should have asked a ULIP Agent.

Some Points

  1. Now 48% goes in Premium Allocation charges, rest of the money will grow at moderate return because it was mix of bear and bull market which the money was invested.
  2. Why was it invested in ULIP first of all and that too Rs 3 lacs as premium!! This is one of the costliest ULIPS in market and has to track record. Why was family financial needs not considered before investing? Why was their risk-appetite not considered?
  3. What kind of agent is this? He takes advantage of trust and invests in something which gives him maximum commission. There was no proper communication about charges and no statements reached them on time.

What is miss-selling here?

Giving “Wrong-Information” is not a big issue, the bigger issue is not giving “any information”. One of the reasons why this kind of things happen is lack of accountability on agents side. You take the product and sign the documents means you are responsible for your decision. While that is true legally, its totally unacceptable morally.

The only thing the investor can do here is make an issue out of it and tell the Insurance company that’s agent miss-sold the policy to him and did not tell him about the charges. Worst thing is investors don’t even know about the “Free Lookup Period”, which is 15 days from purchase of policy before which Investor can cancel the policy of they don’t like it or change their mind.

UPDATE

This is an update after my friend Rishi, whose case we are discussing commented on this article, I am putting up some more thoughts in this below. In case he takes some legal action on this matter. I can think of following things which will be useful and important to quote.

1. As everything was done legally, documentation and signatures taken from investor etc etc. The one thing which can make your case stronger is “explaination” from HSBC people that on what grounds “that Ulip” suited your needs.

How did they come up that this ULIP was the best choice for your family, I hope being the “trusted” and “portfolio managers” they think of your profits and hence they must have figured out why this ULIP was the best in the industry for you guys.

2. How do HSBC products best for you people (i hope 70-80 products they choose were HSBC products)?

3. as per IRDA “it is the moral obligation of the insurer to maintain the ethics and spirit of business across its workforce”. The mere fact that premiums were stopped after 1 yr and now your people are not happy with this shows that obviously you people were not informed well about the cost structure in the start.

Finally this is more of a matter of “Unprofessional Behaviour” than miss-selling per se. I am not sure how much HSBC will help you, as they generally pass the buck on “agent” and “investor who invested”.

You might have to take this case with IRDA. You must first talk to Bank, agent etc and then after you are not satisfied with them, you should go complain at the IRDA ombudsman: https://www.irdaindia.org/ins_ombusman.htm

The ground of plea should be based on “monetary + psychological loss”.

You can read here Confession of an Insurance agent in his own words

Please share if you think there is a good way for getting justice on this matter. Your comments are valuable? Should this is taken into court?

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A beginners guide to start investing in stock markets – Stock market strategy

This is the 4th and last part of the series on Stock Markets articles Newcomers. In other parts we discussed some important things which newcomers should know when they enter Markets.

In this article we will see how a new comer in stock market should start. Go through other 3 parts before this to get maximum out of this article .

How to invest in stock markets

Part 1 : Why Stock Markets Attract and Look Easy
Part 2 : Understanding What exactly you want to do in Stock Markets
Part 3 : 8 most Important Rules in Stock Market

“Small babies like Teddy Bears, and Market Bear likes Babies (newcomers) in Stock markets”

There are 5 things a new comer has to do , I will call it CLOPS model of starting in stock Markets .

  • Calm Down
  • Learn
  • Observe
  • Practice
  • Start Small

This model of learning is totally obvious and logical and applies to all the areas of life. Stock Markets are no different. Lets see each of them separately and what they mean in Stock markets.

Calm Down

The first thing a newcomer has to do is to calm down and not rush. Just be where you are. Most of the people come in stock markets and its totally a new place for them and every thing looks like a great “get-quick-rich” opportunity to them and they want to make most of that once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.

They don’t know its every-day thing in stock markets. Markets are like a wonderland for them. Markets are not going anywhere and its more true for the opportunities they provide.

So the first thing is to just calm down and do-not rush to get in. There are other important things you have to do before you get-rich-quick. Most common mistakes which newcomers do is mainly because of excitement and getting in without preparation not because of lack of skill or because of there abilities.

When you calm down first and don’t get excited you are doing an important thing which is not jumping in without thinking and making yourself ready for another important things which are discussed below.

Learn

The next step is to Learn, Learning is an ongoing process which will never stop as far as Stock markets are concerned, but at the starting level you need to learn lots of basic stuff.

Read how Stock markets are structures, what are different indices, what is Nifty and Sensex? What are the factors affecting markets? How to analyse a company? what are important things to consider while investing?

Read books, Read blogs, Read anything you can get on the subject. Some of the good resources are:

Books for Value Investing (Thanks to Rohit Chauhan to provide the names)

Blogs for Value Investing

Books for Trading

Blogs for Trading

Watch this video for beginners to learn how to invest in share market:

Observe

After learning, the next thing is to Observe the markets. See market movements, watch how prices are behaving on each news or with volumes, see what kind of patterns are developing on charts and does it behave every time in almost same way?

Look at how market behaves in relation with Nifty PE in this post.

When you observe these things, you will develop some understanding on relationship and you can validate those with what you have learned so far. A good amount of time should be given to this, markets have different faces and you need to see all the faces, just one good up move is not enough, see at least all different kind of moves.

Up-move, Down-move, trading in range. All of these in different time frame.

You can actually start this early and do it side by side your learning. Collect charts for each day for later reference so that you can see it later. If you know some programming , make a small program which can download the charts from yahoo customized to your purpose.

I have downloaded 15,000 daily and weekly charts for all the Nifty, Midcap stocks and Asian Indices. I can go back to them and test any of my strategy on those charts. Keep History to learn about the future 🙂 .

Practice

Now come the fun part and very important part, Practicing what you will do in real. So you have learned things and observed things, now is the time to practice. Before you try out anything in stock market with real money, just see if you able to make any money with practice or not.

I would recommend just have an excel sheet and put all the transactions there like

– Buy price
– Sell price
– Profit
– Profit percentage
– Time of holding the position
– Average Loss per trade
– Average Profit per trade

These are the statistics you should keep in mind and see how you are progressing each week, Don’t concentrate on each trade too much. It’s better to have a weekly target while you are practicing.  I would recommend at least 2-3 months of practice.

This step is important because when you get into market to trade, its totally a different thing. Your reactions to markets movement will be too different than what you had thought. If you jump in markets without practice, you will do lots of mistakes.

Better practice before getting in real. Important thing here is that even with practice (without money). It wont help you a lot but will give you good idea of things. The fun part comes when you start with money then you truly get idea of your behavior 🙂 .

Anyways this is important.

Some people think practice is taking all the time and they are losing all the money, which they “could” have made. This is a wrong way of seeing things.

Though it looks like a opportunity lost,  you are in learning mode and the best part is that you are not “losing” anything and getting ready for making money. There is a chapter on Practicing from a book “Enhancing Traders performance” on this post article by Brett Steenbarger, download it and read, its copyrighted material so i cant put it directly here.

Start Small

Now after you have learned things, Observed things and Practiced, here comes the last part, Starting Small, Start putting money in markets in small quantities, Grow gradually. View your self as a small baby who has just born, first start moving, then crawl, finally stand up one day and walk, once you can walk with speed then try Marathon. The same thing applies to Stock market.

But most of the new comers just want to win the marathon and start running fast without understanding that there body is not ready for marathons. they need to first know how to crawl and they want to win marathon.

You will fall a lot of times, you will have losses and will make money too. But if you don’t start small, one big loss will wipe you out of markets.

In the start it would be difficult for you to control your losses, you will need to have string of losses and the best way to tackle the situation is to start small and put little money in markets so that even a series of bad trades don’t hurt you much.

Many people may go slow and play small for learning and practicing part but when they start with real money, they start too big and that’s because of there over-confidence that are now ready to make money. First crawl baby, Marathon is long way to go. Make your legs healthy first, then dream of running.

Conclusion

Each and every newcomer in the market, should understand that Stock markets are places and from centuries people are trying to make money from it consistently but very few people are successful! This profession has very less success rate if your compare it with other professions like Medicine, Engineering, Computer Science etc.

There has to be some reason why you need to give time to it and learn things here. Take it as another professional course like any other and work hard on it. I think one should seriously give around 2 yrs for learning purpose.

See it as a career not just another place to get-quick-rich, that doesn’t happen in Stock Markets. Its a gradually getting rich place rather than get-quick-rich place. There is a famous quote in markets that “There are old traders and bold traders in stock markets, but not both”. that’s true!

Why it is mandatory file Income Tax Return even if your taxable income is below tax limit?

Filing Income Tax Return  is an important thing and as the date for filing ITR is approaching you should have a clear idea about how to file ITR. But is it mandatory to file Income Tax Return?

A lot of people are confused about this simple question of when to file your tax return, In this short article lets see what are the conditions under which you need to file your tax return.

Filing Income Tax Return is mandatory

Who should file Income Tax Return?

As per Indian Income Tax Act 139(1), it is mandatory to file Income Tax Return, for every individual who’s income exceeds the exemption level.

People say that if you don’t have to pay tax , you don’t have to file returns which is not true totally. Lets see the simple rules.

Rule : You have to file your tax returns if your Total Income for the year exceeds the exemptions limit. That’s it !! This is the only rule which applies.

Exemption limit can be different for male (1.5 lacs), female (1.8 lacs) or senior citizen (2.25 lacs). So if your Total income for the year exceeds your exemption limit, you have to file tax.

Do you know how to calculate your tax?

Should I file Income Tax Return even if I don’t have to pay any tax?

Didn’t you read what is said above :-). The only rule is already mentioned above. You don’t have to pay tax. This can happen in two cases.

Case 1 : Income itself is below exemption limit

In this case you don’t pay tax and don’t file your Returns.

Case 2 : Your Income exceeds, but not taxable income

Though your Income exceeds, but After all the exemptions and deductions like 80C investments, HRA, Home loan interest exemption etc etc, your taxable income is below your exemption limit. In this case you don’t have to pay tax, BUT !! you have to file tax returns because your income (not taxable income) was above the exemption limit.

What are the other cases when I have to file the returns?

There are other cases also when its more than paying tax. lets see those cases

  • If you have some form of losses carried forward in subsequent years to write off against profits in future, in that case its obvious, that you will have to file a return so that you can give this information.
  • If Govt itself gives you notice to file tax return, it may happen that you are cheating this nation and making black money , then tax department can ask you for details and you will have to file tax return.
  • If you want a Tax refund because of TDS (Tax deducted at Source by your company). This happens with people who do part time jobs for some months or with Interns in the company who are there for 3 months or 6 months and TDS is cut. So in order to get back the amount you have to file a tax return.

Watch the video given below to know why it is necessary to file ITR:

Why is it necessary to file Income Tax Return?

There are some reasons why should file income tax return, which may look simple but they have a major impact on your financial life. Lets see what are those reasons:

  1. If you are planning to take loan in future, the lender may ask the proof of your ITR filing.
  2. The ITR filing proof is also essential to get VISA if you want to travel abroad.
  3. It is also important if you want to claim the adjustment against past losses.
  4. ITR report is provided by Income Tax departments, so if you file Income Tax  Return regularly on time, it will make your future transactions easier without any complications.
  5. In some states, you can not but an immovable property if you don’t have the Income Tax Return filing proof.

Besides all these reasons, filing Income Tax Return on time makes you a responsible citizen.

Can you save 10% of your salary every month?

Answer this question Honestly. Don’t rush, think about it and then answer this very important question. If you get salary cut of 10% and you have to live with 90% of your salary; how will it affect you? In this article we will see some important insights on spending habit and psychological issues.

Most of the people do not save anything at the end of the month and the biggest reason is that they are not left with anything (as they say). “Supply creates its own demand”.

save money

This applies to Personal spending also. When we have money in our hand we will come up with million reasons as to why we have expenses and why we can’t do with any money less than that.

Answer these questions:

If you get a salary cut by 10%, will you be able to

– Pay your Rent
– Meet all the household expenses
– Pay your children fees
– Spend on all the important things like Entertainment, eating out, occasional
splurging etc etc….

I can bet that most of you will have answer in YES!!

If people control and prioritize their spending then it’s totally possible to live in 90% of salary. Just close your eyes and imagine a situation that you are now earning just 90% of your regular salary. Small savings can make up large chunk of investments.

If you try to answer the above questions then the answer would be a YES for almost all of you. There can be some exceptions but i am talking about majority.

For some people they may require cutting down on totally useless stuff and reducing expenses on things which can/should be avoided. Some of the examples are

  • If you see go out 5-6 times a month, reduce it to 3-4
  • If you see 5 movies a month, reduce it to 4
  • Anything where you can do with less spending

Does saving 10% means that you start living a Frugal life?

Please understand that saving money does not mean depriving yourself. The only thing I’m saying is that we Indians especially in Metro cities have slowly started going the American Way, i.e. Spending more than what we earn. From last couple of years, we are using to much of credit cards in the way we shouldn’t be!

We are a nation which saves but do not invest properly and now we Indians have started spending like never before. Spending is good, spending on useless stuff or stuff we can do without can be like cancer. It will not hurt you immediately, but kill you some day.

Now after you have realized that we can really live with 90% of our salary, what can we do with it. SAVE IT!! what else?

I believe (and I can prove) that saving 10% of your salary is only what you need to do to achieve all your goals in Future, provided you Start Early and Have realistic goals.

A person who is 25 yrs old and earning 40,000 per month if saves 10% will his retirement(60 yrs) would be having anywhere from 2.3 crores to 6 crores if he earns anywhere from 12%-16% in long term which is totally acceptable. See how to calculate this in this video.

What to do?

Next time you get your salary, take 10% out of it and deposit it in some other bank account. Just try to see if you can do with 90% of your salary. I bet you can do it. Saving 10% of your salary can have drastic effect on your investments. You can create nice wealth using Equity in long term.

One of the readers Ramjee comment is worth notice. Please see his comment.

That was on the bulls eye. A little bit of decrease will not effect lifestyle much, but has a lasting impact on your wealth. I have an automated schedule put to transfer 15% of my salary (a fixed amount every month, which is revised if sal.changes) to another account. At end of 6 months it feels good to see the lump sum which can go in for further investments. “

What he did is worth appreciation. I hope people learn from him.

Conclusion

We don’t save because we think we can’t save. Whereas if you try its totally possible. Just to try do this next month. When you get your salary, take 10% out of it and deposit it in some other account and try to live with 90% of your salary, see what all your are missing and if you are facing some difficulty or not.

To see more tips on savings and spending, you can refer to Ramit Sethi’s blog.

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8 most Important Stock markets Rules that every beginner should follow

In this article we will discuss the 8 Key points which a new comer should understand before entering in the world of stock markets.

It may happen that you already have all of this in mind and you do understand them at a subconscious level but let’s go through them again and discuss it.

rules of Stock markets

This is Part 3 of “How a newcomer should start in Stock Markets” series. Read Part 1 and Part 2 before reading this article. We have some so called Cosmic Rules in Stock Markets which if broken will eventually ruin your someday is not immediately.

Let’s see them very briefly.

1. Don’t put all your money in stock markets:

Never ever, put all your money in stock markets. If things go wrong you will be ruined for ever. If you have 50 Lacs and you choose to put all your money in markets because “you are sure that its going to double in 4 months” this means you are also saying that “I am ready to get ruined if the markets crash and goes down to 10 lacs”.

Most of the people like to see the first picture but don’t expect second one to happen even though probabilistic the second one is more likely to happen. Better look for “low risk-or-good” returns, rather than “fatal-or-exceptional” returns. Any money which you want to throw in trash can be used for such high risk Investing or trading.

2. Cut your losses Short:

I know telling you this gives no surety  that you would follow this. It takes time to understand by making mistakes over and over again and learning from it. But still, “Cutting your losses short” is the “Rank 1” Rule in Stock Markets. One who can master this single rule can rule markets.

When you start making losses, your emotions come into play and it says to you “Its coming back and once its back to Rs XXX I will get out”. Don’t listen to it to this voice. The simple rule is “You were wrong, accept it and get out and look for something else” and its damn too tough to understand this in the initial stages.

Mistakes in Stock markets are fantastic if you learn from them. They are more valuable then the right things you do in markets.

3. Getting your priorities Right:

This means having clarity about who you are, what you want to do in markets, Read part 2 : ” Understanding What exactly you want to do in Stock Markets” for this.

4. Do not fight the Trend:

We know that markets move in zigzag fashion, up-down-up-down like this and its true. But some people wire this in mind in such a way that they always try to force market to reverse from its path and justify that it moves in up down fashion.

If markets are going up, in their subconscious mind they feel like markets will now reverse “because they move in zigzag fashion” and hence it should now reverse, this belief entices them to invest or trade in opposite direction. The interesting thing is that people don’t understand what encourages them to go against the trend.

My one and half years of trading experience (not very beautiful one) tells me that this is the reason why we do against the trend and once we control this, it can change our luck. There is no luck in stock markets, it’s simply your thinking. “Change your thinking, your luck will change”

5. Everything is Probabilistic here:

“Buy RELIANCE above 255, Target 273, Stop loss at 245”. Now our Mr. Newcomer will read this in newspaper or listen it from the GOD a.k.a “Markets Expert on CNBC” and take the trade, things will go weird or may go the way predicted but most of the times things will go wrong.

He will be wondering who is wrong? Market? That expert on TV? His Dog? Mr Obama? whom to blame? Everyone in the world but not himself. He will never look inside himself. Everything is probabilistic here, Out of 100 times things may work 60-70% (depends) of time and not work rest of the times.

When it does not work, you have to control yourself and accept that its not working rather than forcing markets to work for you.

6. Don’t listen to Stock Markets Experts on TV:

Why do I say this? Markets “Calls” are least important things in Stock markets (i believe) and you only get that least important information from TV experts. What you don’t get is vital things like psychology to trade, Money management rules, Discipline to follow every time you take the trade. Those calls are in isolation.

Market adviser

They are not generated by a consistent rule, you can get calls from here and there and all of them will be kind of random to you. Other problem can be that you don’t know the time frame of the call. If you don’t understand all that I just told the easy way to understand is to answer this

  • “If listening to TV experts was really worth, Why am I not making money”
  • “How many people do you know who make living or earn exceptional returns by trading what experts tell them”

At last, the point is not that the ‘calls and advice’ works or not? They may work but not for you. There is lot more than getting calls and acting on them.

Another important thing why you should stay away and avoid listening to them is because most of their calls are for “forcing you to trade more” which will eventually generate more brokerage and commissions for trading companies.

Read this article from Shyam Pattabi to understand more on this.

Question : Why do experts give more of BUY calls and very less of “SELL” calls?

My Answer : When some one “SELLS”, he is out of trap, he is out of stock market, he pays commission once. But when Someone “BUYS”, he is trapped in markets, He already paid once and has to pay one more time to get out, so SELL = Commission 1 time and BUY = Commission twice for sure :), Ohh.. Did I discover something here 🙂

7. Have realistic Expectations:

One of the important reason for failure in stock markets is setting unrealistic goals. You see 100% made in a week, 50% in a year, 10% in a day and you think: If 10% is possible in a day or a week then 100% in a year is a child’s play OR you think like if I buy this I will sell only after its tripled.

Once again I say “We learn from History that we do not learn from History”. Have you seen what is the best long term returns from stock markets all over the world. That’s around 15%-20%. That’s it. I am not saying that you can’t get 50% in a year ever, you will get it and everybody gets it, but sometimes.

Over long term you should have expectations of 5-10% more than what safe instruments return or have a target of 4-5% more than what markets give. So anywhere from 12%-20% is good return to expect from long term. In short term there will be chances where you get exceptional returns like 50% in a week or 500% in a year.

But let them come to you don’t force them to happen. Unrealistic Expectations force us to meet them by hook or by crook and that’s when we do mistakes and take unnecessary risk to achieve them and burn out hands badly.

“Want to understand markets, have a girlfriend and try to understand her psychology. People who are already in relationship (males) have an edge I think as Markets and Girls are very much same”

8. Be ready to Make mistakes and Learn:

Some of the best Traders and Investors who are successful today and are multi-millionaires didn’t become one overnight. They Failed miserably in Markets but never quited. They learned, learned and learned from their mistakes. Markets like Life give us opportunity to make mistakes and learn.

As I like to say “Making Mistakes in a privilege which unsuccessful people don’t get in life”. Making mistakes is Great, if you are ready to learn from them.

Part 4 : A small Guide for newcomers in Stock Markets

Don’t forget to comment on which one was your favorite and why ? I am sure we can learn a lot from individual comments 🙂

Ebook on Basics of Technical Analysis

I came up with the first ebook on “Basics of Technical Analysis” . For now I have used the data of my earlier posts only for this ebook , but it has all the data at one place and hence will be good for readers who only want to concentrate on Technical Analysis . Download Link

Please let me know how is the Ebook and If you are finding any difficulty in downloading it . Also feel free to share the ebook with your Family and Friends . No issues .

I hope to come up with another Ebook soon , on “Basics of Financial Planning for New bees” .

As always , Shyam Pattabi came up with an excellent article on his blog where he shares his views on how mis-selling happens in India and why people fall in trap of “advice” and “calls” from agents and other financial services companies , And his analogy on he post is excellent . I came up with similar topic some days back on “Why do you need a Financial Planner” , have a look on that too .

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How to find out Best Fixed Deposit?

Searching for the best FD?

In this short article, we will see a very useful website which gives you all the information on Fixed Deposits and Banks in India

Best FD for future

FD is a tool of saving some part of your income in a fixed account for a fixed time period and earning some interest on that amount. It is a traditional way of saving and we observed our parents taking advantage of Fixed Deposit account for investment purpose since our childhood.

Different banks offer different rate of interest on FD accounts. If you want to invest your income in this traditional tool then you should search for the best bank with best interest rate before investing your money.

Let’s take an example..

Person ‘A’ says: “I want to invest Rs 1,00,000 in a Fixed Deposit for 2 yrs in a public Sector Bank. I come in 30.9% Tax bracket. Which is the best Bank for me that will provide the maximum return?”

He again says: “I also wan to get all the information on the Bank in India at a single place; Which is the website I should checkout?”

How do you answer this question?

You will find the solution for these questions once you read this complete article. Let’s go for this step by step….


How to find out Best Fixed Deposit?

FD accounts are offered by banks and NBFC’s (Non-Banking Financial Companies). NBFC’s offers higher interest rates to attract more accounts and raise capital.

If you want a safe FD then banks are the best option. If you want to invest in companies then before investing you should search for the company details before investment. You can see the criteria and schemes of top companies here.

Have a look at http://www.way2goals.com/Project2/chooseBank.html. This website gives excellent information on Fixed Deposits based on different parameters given by you.

So if you want to invest Rs 1,00,000 for 2 yrs and 3 months in a Public Sector Bank and you belong to 30.9% Bracket, it will filter out the the list of best Banks that suit your needs and provides best return.

It will also tell you what will be your final profit after paying tax and what will be your gain after factoring in Inflation (based on your expectation of inflation percentage).

See the following screenshot for the above figures. (click to enlarge)

how to find out best FD

In current time there are two banks which are offering higher interest rates on FD. These banks are ING Vysya Bank and Lakshmi Vilas Bank. The rate of interest they are providing is 9.25%.

  • Maturity amount
  • Interest Earned
  • Interest After Tax
  • Gain After Inflation

Currently The information on the website is updated twice a week.

Information about a particular Bank

The interest rate is different for each bank. So if you want to open your FD account in a bank, you should check for the interest rates offered by different banks.

If you go to http://www.way2goals.com/Project2/interestRatesByBank.html#. You can get all the basic information about a particular Bank at one place . It will give you information about

  • Website of the Bank
  • Contact
  • Interest Rates information for Different Tenures

Also checkout this link to learn some basic stuff . Way2Goals Software India Pvt Ltd is the company behind http://www.way2goals.com/ .

Conclusion

This is an excellent tool dedicated to Banking Information especially information on Fixed Deposits. Way2Goals is one stop destination for any information on Banking Sector. There is scope of adding lots of things, but I believe it will come with time as any other thing in Life. Great tool!!

If you come up with tools like these please share it with others here :).