What is a COW !! , A truth about Indian Financial Sector

Do you know what is a COW !!!

Keep reading , don’t thin’k its not related to Personal Finance, After you read the paragraph below and read further you will come to know. This posts talks about the state of knowledge of Indian ulip and mutual funds agents.

Indian Financial Sector

The Indian Cow

“HE IS THE COW. “The cow is a successful animal. Also she is 4 footed, and because she is female, she give milks, [ but will do so when she is got child.] She is same like-God, sacred to Hindus and useful to man.But she has got four legs together. Two are forward and two are afterwards.

Her whole body can be utilized for use. More so the milk. Milk comes from 4 taps attached to his basement.[ horses don’t have any such attachment.

What can it do?

Various ghee, butter, cream, curd, why and the condensed milk and so forth. Also she is useful to cobbler, waterman’s and mankind generally. Her motion is slow only because she is of lazy species. Also her other motion.. gober] is much useful to trees, plants as well as for making flat cakes [like Pizza ] , in hand ,and drying in the sun..

Cow is the only animal that extricates her feeding after eating. Then afterwards she chew with her teeth whom are situated in the inside of the mouth. She is incessantly in the meadows in the grass. Her only attacking and defending organ is the horns, specially so when she is got child.

This is done by knowing her head whereby she causes the weapons to be paralleled to the ground of the earth and instantly proceed with great velocity forwards.

She has got tail also, situated in the backyard, but not like similar animals. It has hairs on the other end of the other side. This is done to frighten away the flies which alight on his cohesive body hereupon she gives hit with it.The palms of her feet are soft unto the touch. So the grasses head is not crushed.

At night time have poses by looking down on the ground and she shouts. Her eyes and nose are like her other relatives. This is the cow. ”

source : Arun. K. Mukherjee blog

Most of the agents in India who sell Mutual Funds or ULIPS talk in the same way about it . They know very little about it , only to an extent which can make ignorant people feel that these agents know a lot . They have no understanding of How to choose a good mutual fund or How to manage Ulips effectively

And these agents work for big houses , I have often came across agents who explain me mutual fund or ULIP in the same way you read “what is COW!” . They don’t have communication skills to sell a product or convince a person who knows something about the product .

If you are slightly informed person , just call an agent and ask him internal questions about the product . you will see in how much water they are in .

What should be Done !!

There should be strict accountability from agents . Though you can never put all responsibility on agents for any loss of yours , at least there should be some quantifiable measure for the standard of there recommendation .

I am not saying that all agents are like this , but majority are . Some of the agents are very nice . like the one I dealt with while buying for me for the first time .

Apart from this , the biggest responsibility lies with you , you have to be well informed yourself . If you are your self an idiot , agent has all the right to make you one . So be informed , knowledgeable and understand what to do . You have to understand how to Find out if a product fits you, (Look at GFactor )

Question for you :
Do you think that eliminating agents (one who recommend products) will make situation better or Worse !! .

I think it wont affect a lot in current scenario !! , what do you think ?

I wrote a post on how does a common man think about money , read it

A common Man’s Dream about Money

How much do you want to earn ? What kind of Financial life do you want ?

Don’t we claim to lot of people that Money is not important to us in life ? We want happiness, We want time to do things which we “like”. We are interested in health , happiness and peace of mind, We want to spend time with our family, play with kids, take our spouse for a world tour and a lot of similar things.

dream about money

Average person thinking

Most of the people will claim that money is not the biggest thing in there life , but still we see most of the people working consistently for 50-60 hrs a week , some work 70 hrs+ . We are free only on weekends and that too goes in household chores and planning for next week and may be one evening which one can claim to be the way “they wanted it to be” .

The truth is most the people can achieve there financial goals but are not fully committed towards it . This may be true because of lack of knowledge or attitude towards this .

We all have desire to achieve our goals in life , and that will happen only when we are financially independent , No wonder that we will have to work in the starting period of our lives . Every will have to do that , but better financial management can help in achieving your goals earlier than average .

So take out some time to work on your personal finance , thats what you are working for whole your life !! , incase you dont know πŸ™‚

People Invest and then forget

Most of the people invest or take decisions and then forget about it , they feel that there job is done . this may be because of the fear of loosing money or coming to know that they made a wrong decision .

How many times it happened that you took a share , mutual fund or a policy and it didn’t work for you , didn’t give you returns as expected and actually made losses . Did you care to find the reason for making a mistake , did you take any step to confront the situation and take measures to fix the mess . Or you just left it to destiny saying “I will just give it some time , it should be fine in 1 yr or so”

Successful people take hard decisions , they work for there money , they read , they go to websites to find out things , they take out time to contact people and get information about it .

My experience

I took a Term Insurance from SBI (SBI Shield Plan) last year . It was the best plan which suited me .After some months there was news that term insurance premiums have come down and there is a new entrant “Aegon Religare ” in the market . I calculated back and saw that Reliage premium was Rs 1,000 cheaper than SBI (for my policy) .

I contacted my Agent and asked him to provide me the numbers (premium) for this year and told him straight forward that I will surrender the policy this year I I dont get a good deal . Atleast I will not choose them for my additional Insurance cover .

I don’t think many people care to find this out and take the “pain” of doing it all over again for the sake of small money . remember that its not small money … Small is Big !!

People make fortunes by investing regularly small chuck of money . So if get a chance to save even a small bit , do it . It will show in future .

What to do ?

Money can be generated but with discipline , you have to understand this and act on this . Invest systematically for a long period of time and use well know principles of Asset Allocation and Portfolio Rebalancing (read what is it) , portfolio rebalancing .

Just like we have lots of data , confusion and noise in Stock market , in the same way we also have it in personal finance . There are thousands of products claiming to be better than others . There are mutual funds who claim to give 25% consistently (there are many which have actually given) .

You have to get out of the noise , and understand that you dont need much to make long term wealth . You just need better than average returns .

Let us see some components required :

– Strong Planning

– Stick to the plan and follow it with Discipline

– you dont need 20% or 30% returns (and don’t even look for it) . Just 5-6% above inflation is good and that’s what you should expect .

So plan your finances well in advance , have a path to follow and then just follow it without deviating in between . Dont get greedy .

Please let me know how do you like this new look for the blog , I am sure many like it , It gives better look and feel .

Answer me following question

– Do you have any financial plan for future ?
– What kind of returns do you expect from your investments as per your thinking ?

What is Financial Planning – CFP

This post is for people who want to make career in Financial Planning . I will be talking about CFPCM Certification here .

CFP

What is CFP Certification ?

CFP or Certified Financial Planer Certification programmes in India are offered mainly by Financial Planning Standards Board India. Its a certification after doing which you will be a certified to be a Financial Planner and take different roles in the area of Financial planning .

What is FPSB ?

Its Financial Planning Standards Board India , The board authorised to give CFP certification in India . FPSB is a Public–Private Enterprise and a Professional Standards Setting body for Financial Planners in India.

FPSB India proactively guides the development and promotion of standards for Financial Planning professionals to benefit and protect the public in the country.

Who should do CFP ?

Its for people who want to enter the field of Financial Planning , People are interested in the subject and recognise the huge potential and rewards this area may benefit . There are many other courses in Finance like CA , CFA , ICWA or MBA (finance) , but they are totally different from CFP .

CFP mainly deals with planning of Finances in area of Investment , Insurance , Taxation . So its more inclined towards financial planning for individuals .

People who are working professional in other industries and want to switch there career in Financial planning can also go for CFP , its easy to complete the CFP certification while working .

Is it worth doing CFP , What is the Future of this ?

My take :

India has 1 billion+ population ,where financial awareness is almost non-existent , People here save money but do not understand how to invest it or take care of it in the best way . They don’t even know the basic steps for Financial planning . Currently there are handful of CFP’s in India who are in great demand .

In days to come CFP professional will be the most sought after and highly paid professional’s in area of Finance and overall .

So CFP is the next big thing all over India . That is my personal opinion .

How easy it is to do CFP , Is it too costly ?

How to register : There are many Education Providers (colleges) in India certified by FPSB to offer the study material , you have to enroll with some EP of your choice and do the course , They may offer the course through classroom coaching or Distance learning , you have to decide what suits you.

Giving Exams : The exams are conducted though nseindia.com just like NCFM exams , you have to register for an exam date , pay the fees and give the exam. thats it !! .

Cost : Its not at all costly compared to other courses in same field . There are 6 modules you have to clear . Following is the Fees structure

  • FPSB fees : 10,000
  • Exams for 5 module per module : 13000 (2000 for 4 modules and 5k for last module)
  • EP Fees : 20000 (that is average , Many charge from 10k to 1 lacs)

So In total it should be around 45,000 – 60,000 .

Its one of the best career options in India currently at this cost .

people who want are in Bangalore can go for “MANDAR Learning Acedamy” as there EP .

To get more details , go to https://www.fpsb.co.in/Scripts/RegisterForCFPCertificationProgram.aspx

When do you become a CFP ?

You become CFP only after passing all the CFP module exams and having experience as per CFP criteria , Its either 3 years experience in Financial sector or 6 yrs experience in Non-financial sector . For details see there site .

Note : The information given on this post if not 100% information , I just gave a brief idea about CFP . for details you must see fspb site .

See my previos post of GFactor

Conclusion :

CFP is one big thing for India . Indians badly need right financial planning for them and in this country of 1 billion , CFP’s will be the king of future . So if you have interest , time and and some money , go for it .

All the best !!

The Internal Analysis of Akruti Crash

Numbers and Graphs Speak.

I thought of starting my articles from some Analysis on Akruti City Crash .

In this article we will learn , how can we before hand get some idea about events like this and have clear picture of whats going on .

See my previous posts on Warning about Akruti City : Post 1 , Post 2 , Post 3

– Lets see 2 yrs old chart first


If you see the chart you will see the steep rise in prices in last month , you can also see that its was not a normal price movement , when compared with previous movements .

For a closer view , lets see 3 months charts


If you see the chart you will see ,that prices moved up crazy and then crashed in two stages .

First Downmove : This happened because of the news that SEBI is excluding it from F&O segment . (If you dont know F&O , dont worry) .

Second Downmove : Second downmove came near 25-26 Mar , when it was F&O expiry . What happened ? Lots of positions were built up in F&O and after a sharp upmove , everyone rushed to get out as fast as they can , at any price . So selling pressure came in and prices tanked 45% .

See High Volumes in the month of March (3rd half of the graph) . Suddenly there was so much participation . Most of the buying which was happening on this stock was not for long term basis (delivery basis) .

What is Delivery Basis : delivery buying means , people actually get the stock in there demat accounts , it simply means its delivered physically to there account , But when you buy in the morning and sell the stock in evening , then its not delivery basis . you just make profit or loss same day .

Lets understand an important concept called “Deliverable Percentage” , which simply means , percentage of shares out traded shares which are actually delivered .

So if its higher , it means that most of the buying and selling is happening for delivery basis and people want to keep it with them for some time , When its too low , it means lot of trading (speculation) is going on to catch the pie in the price movement and hence its not sustainable most probably .

Example :

So , for some XYZ company , if volume is 100 shares and and deliverable % is 50% , it means that 50 shares where delivered and 50 were speculated , which is normal ..

But if its 20% or 10% , then things are fishy , there is no value buying happening and shares are just exchanging hands from one to another where each one wants to sell it at higher price , also there are people who want to buy the shares at higher price , because they know that there will be some idiot who will buy from them at much higher price to continue the madness .

And when it ends then what happens , There are no buyers !! , every one has sold at lower prices and then suddenly the selling madness comes in and the bunch of people who get out first (at higher prices) make the most money . And in this pressure everyone is ready to sell at a lower price than someone else .

You can easily imagine that day price movement , see 26th Mar downmove of 45% crash .

So how do we find out that this is happening , Is there some place we can get data from , and the answers is nseindia.com website , it has all the information on needs to know .

Source : https://nseindia.com/content/equities/eq_scriphistdata.htm

Go here , choose 3rd radio button (Security-wise Price volume & Deliverable position data) , and choose share name and dates for which you want data . You will get all the data .

You must see “Price” , “Total Traded Quantity” , and “% Dly Qt to Traded Qty”, you will get good idea at looking it .

But I will not leave you with boring looking numbers . I have taken the AKRUTI data for 3 months (Feb 1 – Mar 27) and then smoothed it with 5 period moving average for each of them and then plotted it on graph , so that you can get the picture pretty well .

The points do not represent the actual value , it only shows you the relationship of each other . see the below graph .

If you enlarge the chart , you will see this relationship

Price : Prices picked up and start moving up . (Orange line)

Traded Quantity : You will see how it started moving up wildly and picked up a pick high speed in March (3rd half portion) (RED line)

Deliverable % : you will notice that it started going down and down , which indicated that even though Traded quantity is going up and up , the delivery is not happening , which means lots of speculation , which is an indication of a building of Bubble which can burst anytime .

So whats the learning , If you see Price movement in one direction and see Rising Traded Quantity and falling Deliverable % , you should suspect the move . It is normal to some extent , but an extra ordinary move is truly suspectable .

And whats happening now to Akruti ?

from last some sessions there is no buyer , only sellers are there and from the peak price of 2100 levels , its now down to 380 (at the time of writing) . I had already warned of this long back , dont take it as any success in prediction of stocks πŸ™‚ .

If you see the current Volumes of Akruti , it was 2137 on NSE , where as average volume was at 4.5 lacs !! , Which means that this down move is not supported by volumes , (watch volumes in 2nd chart , you will see nothing) .

Its just the fear of handful traders who have no idea why they are selling . So we can again expect some wild moves on upside in future when prices starts picking up .

Conclusion : When you see prices moving in one direction without any great fundamental change or significant news , You can use the numbers and see there relationship and you will see something which most of the people have no clue about .

Disclosure : I had learned this technique from Mr. Sunil Saranjame blog , timamo.blogspot.com , an excellent market reviewer as per my thinking . So credit goes to him .

Please join jagoinvestor google groups , see the upper right area at the start of the page , I will be sending instant notifications about the post and we can also share options trades there or some other stock trades when there is good opportunity . Also who all have not left there comments/suggestions , please do so on the suggestions/comments post

I also Introduced my self in the last post , see My Introduction

3 M’s of Successful Trading

In the last Article , we had seen an Introduction to trading . In this section we will see what are the 3 M’s of Successful Trading as per Dr Alexander Elder .

I will give brief introduction of each of it , Its your responsibility to take it further and learn it in detail . take this as just a starting point .

3M of successful trading

The 3 M’s are :

  • MIND
  • METHOD
  • MONEY

MIND

This part of Trading is most important . It deals with Psychology . When one enters Trading business , he/she has some beliefs about the environment, about markets. They have to understand the importance of Discipline, How people think , how greed and fear affects investors. There are sub-parts to this

# Individual psychology of traders : You have to understand how to control Fear and Greed . How you should take rational decisions and not fall pray to your emotions while trading .

# Mass psychology of the markets : You also have to understand how mass psychology works . Why most of the people do what they do .

# The rules for maintaining personal discipline : You also have to understand the importance of Self Discipline, why you must be always consistent with your trading . You must never violate your rules . because in long run your discipline in one thing which will make you most money , not your knowledge or your skills .

METHOD

This is the part which deals with your knowledge about market , technical analysis , other tools which you can use to make Entry and Exit from any trade . This part is perceived to be the most important aspect and most of the people run after these a lot , but these are the least important part of your trading . Let us see part of this .

#Technical indicators :

These deals with the tools available for making decisions , for example , MACD, RSI , Stocastics, OBV and other 200 weird words.

#The best chart patterns :

Then you must know different types of patterns, which gives some idea about future action and how masses are thinking, some examples can be double top, Head and shoulder pattern etc.

#Developing a trading system :

Then finally after you are done with knowledge part, you should build up your trading system. what is trading system ? Its your rules for buying, selling, booking profits and cutting losses.

For learning on some technical tools you can see my series of articles on “How to be a better than average Investor”

MONEY

Now this part is an amazing one and my favorite πŸ™‚ . What this determines is how will you manage your money , it decides how much money will put in market at any given time , and how much loss will you take maximum on any given trade . How much will be your maximum loss on any one trade, things like that .

Basically this part decides how long can you in the game of trading if things would go wrong . This part is extremely important . Without proper money management no can can survive for long in Trading . Lets see some basic and widely accepted views .

# The 2% Rule for individual traders :

This rule days that on any given trade your loss should not exceed 2% of total capital . So if you have Rs 1,00,000 , first time your loss should not be more than 2,000 . This rule makes sure that even if you make long series of loosing trades , still you are in the game .

Even if you make 10 consecutive loosing trades , your overall loss will be 18.3% , Though this will be rare , still you take care of this situation .

# The 6% Rules for every trading account :

This rule says that your monthly loss should not cross more than 6% in a month . Sometimes when you trade it may happen that there is some problem with your analysis or some issue between you and market which can not be explained , you keep trying to win , but don’t succeed, that time you have a great urge to revenge trade and get your money back .

The best thing at that time is to stop and get some rest , go for vacation and come back with fresh mind . This rule will make sure that if your chemistry with market doesn’t fit , you stop after loosing 6% of your capital . You can choose your own percentage amount .

I would like to choose 12% for me . it all depends on your risk appetite and stubbornness πŸ˜‰

You might be interested in my previous money management example

# Essential record keeping for success :

This part says that you should always keep all the information regarding each trade . Buy price , sell price , date of purchase , how many days you carried , Reason for buy , reason of sell , what you learned from the trade , chart at the time of buying , charts at the time of selling etc etc .

Why do you do this ?

Record keeping makes sure that any day you can go back to your records and see what kind of mistakes you have done, why some trade failed , why you succeeded in some trade ? you can get lots of information from your records , you need to analyse your performance over days/months/years .

Its extremely important , after a series of trades when you look back to your records , you may be able to find out some pattern , some particular aspect or mistake which you do with each loosing trade and hence can take corrective measures .

So, finally we are done with 3 M’s of successful trading . Professor Van Tharp , in this legendary book “Trade your way to Financial Freedom” talks about how the weightage they would give on these 3 M’s .

According to him in Trading the importance factor is like this

Mind : 60%
Money : 30%
Method : 10%

Its totally opposite of what people perceive it to be , general people think that having all market knowledge and technical analysis is most important .

Nothing is far from truth , It wont be too ambitious to say that you can make money in market by simple coin toss if your have sound money management Techniques and Great control over your self , you need to cut your looser short without any emotion and let your profits run till they can by sitting tight and doing nothing .

Conclusion

So finally if you want to start learning Trading , Work hard on your Psychology part and money management techniques , Technical analysis and other knowledge is important but not vital !! .

Some other article’s you might be interested in :

Options Trading
Trading , What is it ?
Swing Trading Presentation by Mr. Sudarshan Sukhani

you might also be interested in simple technical analysis example given by me with charts at my analysis blog

A Small tutorial on “How to start Trading?”

What does it takes to be successful in Trading ?

We are going to see 2 articles on this subject, this is Part 1. In this part I will give introduction to Trading and tell you what exactly is it and how should you approach it (if you want to do it).

Trading

Dr. Alexander Elder, explains in his legendary book “Come in to My Trading Room”, the 3 M’s of Successful trading, which I will touch upon today and will explain it in my own way to you. In the second part we will see the 3 M’s in my way of explanation.

Let us first see what exactly is the difference between Trading and Investing and then we will go over the explanation.

Difference between Investing and Trading

Investing means buying a stock of financial instrument for a long period of time, typically over several years. Assessing good investment opportunities often makes use of fundamental information, such as earnings, but can also use technical analysis to detect long-term trends.

Trading means buying and selling stocks or other financial instruments for shorter periods of time, typically less than a few months. Assessing good trading opportunities typically makes use of trading systems or chart-based techniques to detect short-term patterns.

The main advantage of trading over investing is that it provides the ability to make money regardless of the overall direction of the market or the price of an individual stock. The general consensus is that You can make more money in bear markets with Trading than Bull markets. Because bear markets provide steep movements compared to bull markets .

How Risky and Rewarding is Trading ?

Risk : Trading is considered as one of the most risky business you can ever do. Trading can wipe out your entire money so fast that you cant even imagine. As per the data, every 19 person out of 20 who does trading eventually looses. So the success ratio is not more than 5%, even out of this 5%, 3-4% just make small money, actually big money is made by 1% of people.

Reward : If done correctly and successfully trading can make you enough money you cant imagine. Most of the successful traders make more money in a month than people who are considered as “making good money” make in a year. but this numbers is for highly successful traders.

The other reward for successful trader is Independence. Once successful, you are your own boss, can work whenever you want, trade from all corner of the world while travelling.

For people who want to try there skills in trading can try mock trading on moneyvidya.com, Just buy and sell stocks and see how much money are you able to make in 2-3 months, It will give you some feel of trading. You can also read past my article on MoneyVidya.

Should you try Trading ?

Well, Just anyone who thinks that trading is a “get rich quick” thing, is doomed to failure, this is the biggest reason why people fail, they start or see trading with wrong attitude, they want to make millions (if not billions) in just a month or a year from Trading, They underestimate the Risk part and over estimate Reward part of Trading and eventually fall pray to Market’s anger.

Just because its “BUY” or “SELL”, they think its easy. and they need to read a little bit and because they are so successful and smart in whatever they are doing currently, they will succeed in Trading too. The approach Trading in a wrong way with totally unrealistic expectations.

So the main question still is “Is it for you ?”

you have to ask your self some of the questions which are as:

  • Are you ready to take Great risk of losing money ?
  • Do you have time and energy to learn the stuff required to Trading ?
  • Do you like Markets, numbers and what ever required for Trading ?

Some of the thing which “does not matter much” in Trading are :

  • Are you highly intelligent person ?
  • How successful you have always been in whatever you have done earlier in your life ?

Conclusion :

Understand very well that Trading is a very very risky business and not an easy thing , you have to learn it just like any other profession like Medicine or Software and it takes time . But , now a days I would say Trading is much easier compared to earlier days , Now with the online trading and lots of data available on Internet , there is lot of scope in Trading now .

In the next post we will quickly see 3 M’s for successful Trading . here is Part 2

Disclaimer : I am myself a student of Trading and still in my learning Phase , I have lost good money in Trading and still struggling to break even . But Eventually its going to happen, because I have not lost the confidence and still on fighting in the battlefield (Markets) .

 

Why you should Plan your Taxes at the start of the Year?

Most of the people take care of there 80C at the end of the year around Jan-Mar . Ideally it should be at the start of the year . Let us see why its should be done at the start of the year itself to plan your taxes.

Plan your Taxes

Following are the 4 most important reasons for Planning your Taxes in start of the year .

Easy on Pocket :

If you plan your taxes at the start of the year , you can then put small amount of money each month . Otherwise you will have to cough up all the money at the end of the year , which can be little difficult on the pocket .

For example :

If you want to invest 60k for this year … you have two choices , either plan your taxes in advance and invest 5k per month, or invest 60k at the end.

No Headache last moment: Another important point to consider is the tension and headache you go at the last moment because of the rush , there is sudden confusion at the end on what to take , where to go , where all the money will come from and all those things .

planning the taxes in the start of the year ensures that you do in correctly and without and headache for the last moment .

Correct products :

If you plan your taxes in the start of the year , you can do your research well and plan for products which you actually need and then go for it . I have seen most of the people taking all kind of wrong products which they don’t need, because there is just no time to think about your requirement , you just have to “invest to save tax” .

Conforms with principle of “Investing Early” : Also when you plan our taxes early you are putting your investments early, that way you are ahead of most of the other people .

Conclusion

An important aspect of Financial planning is to plan your taxes early . Why procrastinate when you know you have to do it anyways … Best of luck .

I have written a series of 4 articles which talks about “Buying Stocks Smartly”

You can read them here : Part 1, Part 2, Part 3 , Part 4

How to use Oscillators to BUY an SELL

Hi

This is 4th part of the “How to be a better than average Investor” series of articles. Today’s lesson is on Oscillators .

What are Oscillators :

Oscillators are the indicators which move from overbought to oversold area, generally from 0 to 100. when they are nearing 100 it means stocks are overbought and “expected” to go down now. when they are nearing 0, it means, stocks are in oversold area and fresh buying can come and move the stock up.

Oscillators

hey .. wait a min, did you vote on the poll upper right side, I have asked on what all topics do you want me to write. Please select topics from them, so that you also get to read your favorite thing some time πŸ™‚ cheers … go ahead ..

I will discuss just 2 oscillators which Investors can use to make better BUY AND SELL decisions.

Let take a time frame of 6 months and see how indicators gave signals of buy and sell. We will see 2 indicators here RSI and Slow Stocastics (SS) (Read what is RSI and What is Slow Stocastic ).

Rules

When it’s overbought, we SELL the share.
When it’s oversold, we BUY the share.

SS BUY signal = when blue color line crosses down the Red line.
SS SELL signal = when blue color line crosses above the Red line.

RSI BUY signal = when RSI has moved below 30 and starts moving up.
RSI SELL signal = when RSI has moved above 70 and starts falling down.

To make signals more stronger, we will use both the indicators signal and take BUY or SELL only when both shows same kind of signal.

OVERBOUGHT = when RSI and SS both are overbought
OVERSOLD = when RSI and SS both are oversold.

Note

At any point of time, markets may be in any of 3 state.

– Uptrend
– Downtrend
– Side ways Movement

Understand that these signals work best in range bound market, like we had for last 6 months. When market were moving in range of 3100-2600. If markets are in strong Uptrend or Downtrend, these indicators will generate many false signals.

Hence, In different markets we have to use different strategies.

Uptrend Market : IN Uptrend, you should avoid selling the stock, when there is small correction, Indicators can fast move in oversold region, that is the time you should BUY. But not SELL when prices are in over bought market.

Downtrend Market : In Downtrend, you should avoid Buying the stock, only SELL when the indicators are in overbought region .

Sideways Market : In this market, you can buy and sell both.

Lets see some examples for last 6 months. This was a Sideways market (but still downward bias was there, so be careful with BUY, you can take SELL easily).

DLF Chart

ICICI Chart
RELIANCE CAPITAL


Some Important things to NOTE (very important)

Oscillators should not be used in Isolation alone, You should also confirm it with other things like Support and resistance to make your BUY or SELL more stronger.

For example : If prices are near the Overbought, but you see that prices have broken the resistance point, its tells you that you should not BUY. because Oscillators are secondary thing, prices are primary.

Also, If prices are near support and not breaking it, and oscillator are in over sold area, then its safe to BUY. Never rely just on Oscillators, they are only helping tools used with other signals.

Lets see one Chart of JaiAss for testing what you have learnt.

Questions for you

– Tell me where are the buying and selling opportunities.
– Tell me where you should have avoided the signals.
– What according to you can help along with these oscillators.
– Can you come up with some other oscillator of your own which can measure some important thing )

JAIPRAKASH ASSOCIATES CHART

ok, So finally we end the 4th part of this series of articles on Technical Analysis. I hope you have learnt some things from me.

Earlier Posts

Part 1: What is Fundamental and Technical Analysis and which should be used When

Part 2 : How to use Support and Resistance to BUY and SELL ?

Part 3 : How to use Trendlines to find Support and Resistance ?

Understand that we are not learning how to trade, we are learning some trading tools which can be used by long term traders to make better Buy and Sell decisions .

Incase you want to trade stocks/futures/options just after learning from these 4 articles, I must tell you have you have not learned even 1% required for trading. 99% is still there to be learned and over all knowledge of markets, technical analysis blah blah is just 10%. 90% is Psychology, your attitude and your Discipline.

Trading is risky and not easy to do for long term.

Leave you comments / thoughts / suggestions / and answers to test question.

hey .. wait a min, did you vote on the poll upper right side, I have asked on what all topics do you want me to write. Please select topics from them, so that you also get to read your favorite thing some time πŸ™‚ cheers …

Asset Allocation presentation

I am putting a small presentation prepared by a friend Subbu . This talks about asset allocation at different stages of life .

Incase you have not looked at “How to be a better than average Investor” series articles . You can look at them

Part 1
Part 2
Part 3

These articles talk about use of Technical Analysis to find support and resistance levels to make better BUY and SELL decisions . Please share them with others too .

How to use Trendlines to find Support and Resistance

Hi Readers

This is 3rd part of “How to become Better than average investor” Series. Read

Fundamental and Technical Analysis, What and When ?: Part 1
Using Support and Resistance: Part 2.

Let us today discuss how can we use Trendlines to use Support and resistance levels and make better Entry or Exits.

What is a TrendLine?

A trend line is a straight line that connects two or more price points and then extends into the future to act as a line of support or resistance. In the Uptrend , we join two low prices points and in Downtrend, we join two high prices and extend it further. Next time when prices approach them, it should probably act as a Support or resistance point.

Let us see one example of each of them.

Example of trend line while DOWNTREND


You can see in the chart how Two high prices were joined and the line acted as Strong Resistance in future, 3 times prices touched it and broke down again, These are good price area where either one can go Short (sell), or book their profits. You can see that now prices are again Approaching to this Resistance line, so once prices reach this point, it may provide a good opportunity to sell.

What will happen exactly, better not to predict and let the market decide?

Understand that we are not saying that prices have to necessarily touch the Resistance line and then go back down , the trend line only provides Resistance, it may again go back much before touching it .

Example of trend line UPTREND

Below if the 2 yrs chart of HIND LEVER, Let us try to make a trend line which acts as support.

If you see the chart, I have connected two low prices and extended it in future, you can clearly see how it acted as support area and prices went back up from there, At the end, you can see how prices are again approaching this support area, most probably this will again hold and it should be a good BUY πŸ™‚

Let us see one more example of Trend lines. This example will show us the following things :

Resistance line using a trend line.
– Breakout
– How Resistance once is broken became Support
Resistance line using trendline for a shorter time frame.

Let us see a 2 yrs chart of JAIPRAKASH ASSOCIATES


You can see here how I joined two HIGH Points and extended the trendline in the future, and how prices reacted to this Resistance line. Recently Prices broke out of this resistance line and then this same resistance line acted as the Support line and prices bounced back from there.

Also, you can see a small trendline, which was made joining the low points . you can see how prices bounced up as this support line held the prices. So, we have seen some examples of Trend lines and how they can act as Resistance or Support lines (as per situation).

Some of the important points to note are :

– It’s more of an art to making a trendline, it depends on how you make them using HIGH PRICE, CLOSE PRICE, etc.

– You can make Trendline for any time frame.

– It’s not necessary for prices to touch trendlines, you should not expect it.

– It’s a wise decision to BUY OR SELL using trendlines. If the trade goes in your favor, let your profits run, if it fails, cut your losses short and accept it. there is no problem with being wrong . even the best in Industry fail.

Trendlines will be of no help unless you control your GREED in markets. Don’t put all your money in a single trade. Keep adequate cash for bad times.

– Once trendlines are broken, take it seriously, it has happened for a reason :).

– Make sure that the two points used to make the trendline are not very near, there should be some time gap between them to believe in them.

– More times the trendline is touched by the price stronger it becomes, And stronger is the break out from that trendline.


Test for you πŸ™‚

Below is a chart, and I have drawn several trendlines in different time frames, I have marked some points with 1,2,3,4,5, please tell me what are each of them and comments on each point. please do it individually. Let me see who comments correctly on each of them. Also, tell me if there is any other trendline that could have been made, but I have left it?



People who are good with Videos can watch the following videos

 


Please comment on this article, did you like it? Was it easy to understand? Is it too difficult to use Trendlines ?

Conclusion :

So we end this Article here, We saw the Importance of Support and Resistance and how to make trendlines and use them. In the next part (last part), we will see how we can use some of the Indicators from technical Analysis to make the decision better.

Also, we can see that even by visual inspection we can get some idea about which area is support and resistance area.

For people interested in learning these things in detail, I would recommend the book “How to make money trading with Charts” by Ashwini Gujral.