Don’t underestimate the power of Compounding

Let me tell you a small story which will help you to understand the power of compounding easily.

There once was a king whose daughter was very ill. The king announced to his people that whoever cured his daughter can marry the princess and ask for another reward. One young man came and cured the princess with his family owned secret remedy.

Power-of-compounding

The king was so happy that he anxiously asked the young man what else he wanted besides marrying the princess as his 2nd wish. The young man pointed to a chess board with 64 squares on it and asked the king to put one grain of rice in the first cube and two in the second, four in the third, and eight in the fourth, and so on until the 64th square is filled up.

The king laughed and confirmed his wish that he really wanted rice grains and not GOLD!! The King did not realize what he agreed to at that particular time.

By the time they reach 32nd cube all the rice reserves of his Kingdom were exhausted! It was staggering 214 Crores grains of rice itself.. Each of the subsequent cubes required the King to double up the number of grains. King had to ask other Kingdoms for Grains and till he reached 45th cube the Rice Grain Reserves of all the kingdoms finished…

Eventually the king had to handover his entire kingdom to this clever person. That’s Power of Compounding!!

What’s the Moral

There are many people in our country who underestimate power of compounding and benefit of starting investing early in life. A thousand mile journey starts with a small first step. A huge fortune is made by starting small.

At first it may look small , but with patience and discipline in investing a sizable corpus can be built over long time. The secret of building huge corpus is to “Start” and “Keep doing it”.

Why you should be careful while investing in NFO?

Here comes a new NFO!!!

In this post we will discuss why one should really be cautious about NFOs and why in general its better not to invest in any NFO. Have you heard about NFOs and IPOs hitting the markets while markets are doing bad? Why is it so? this is a question we must answer to.

NFO

The reason why most of the NFOs and IPOs hit the markets when markets are doing extremely good is to exploit the emotional buying of investors. Its a common thing that investors tend to get in rising markets then falling markets.

So when markets are flying high and all kinds of NFOs with fancy names (some good funds and some junk funds) will hit the market claiming how different they are and how they  are ought to be a huge success.

If you are a new reader , you may like to read some terms and terminologies

Understanding NFO’s

No Proven Track Record:

Every NFO will come with its own idea and logic, but investing is never easy and you can see true colors only after few years. They can be success or failure!

So why to go for something which can either fail or succeed, instead why not go for some existing fund which already has proven its mettle, which has given superb returns over long term and has excellent management. These funds have high probability to continue their performance.

Its like: what would you prefer? Take risk of marrying someone you don’t know or someone who is already a good friend and you know him/her over years?

Cheap NAV at Rs 10:

Most NFO offer comes with NAV of Rs 10 and the biggest myth of investors is that its a cheap fund and hence better than a fund with NAV of 20 or 100. NAV growth is nothing but growth of investments and it does not matter what NAV rate is! Rs 10 NAV mutual funds and Rs 100 NAV mutual fund will grow with same rate if their investment quality is the same. There is no reason to invest in a fund that has low NAV.

Myth of High Dividend from Low NAV Fund:

Majority of our “Educated” Agents will tell you that buying low NAV fund will help you in getting more Dividend (if you choose Dividend option) because Dividend is declared on number of Units held. So you will get more units of mutual funds if you invest in low NAV funds!

Whatever he says is true, but he himself does not know that it’s the investor’s money coming back to him and NAV value will again go down by that much value. So in real money terms, there is no benefit of dividend option. See difference between growth and Dividend options

Agents will market it very well and try to push the NFO’s for Sale:

Everyone wants to make money! What other product can be better for a mutual funds agent than an NFO!!! Agents get High commission on selling NFOs and hence they will do anything to sell it. They will spend money aggressively for Marketing as its taken back from Investors eventually and not the AMC. Caution, Be-aware!

Does that mean all NFO’s are Bad?

No! Every existing mutual funds was NFO once upon a time. You should go through the NFO Offer prospectus to find out whether the offer seems interesting and logical enough for you to invest in it. Only then you can go for it. But just understand that only a handful of all NFO’s become good funds.

So out of 1000 mutual funds only a few like 20-30 will be extremely outstanding funds. So the decision is yours! Do you want to take the chance? Or you want to wait and let it show its true colors before you get into it.

Which is the new hot NFO in the Market?

Reliance Infrastructure Fund is the new name in the market these days. All the things which I talked above applied to this too. Before Investing in it read about it in acute detail. I will provide my short view on this.

Reliance Infrastructure Fund is a Sectoral Fund (Infrastructure). This sector looks attractive over next few years. The picture would be more clear after the Budget is out because that’s when we exactly know what is Govt plan in this particular sector.

If its a bad news then the stocks in these sector will take a hit and suddenly it can become a reason for suicide for its investors. Why not wait till the budget and then 😉

We also have some good Infrastructure funds in the market with proven record like UTI Infrastructure Fund and TATA Infrastructure Fund. It depends on you now what you want to do? The Fund will also put money in derivatives segment, which can again make the fund more risky and rewarding. Read more about Reliance Infrastructure Fund NFO details.

Conclusion: Investing in NFOs can be like shooting in dark for retail investors! A better idea for them is to invest in something which has more probability of performing well. NFOs can be extremely successful because of their unique idea or investing style but its too tough to choose them successfully. Better to avoid them!

Here are my 2 day trek pics , Have a Look. I am putting the best Pic taken by me 🙂

Before anyone asks, I must tell that its taken by a normal point and shoot camera 🙂 Its just a result of Interest and Willingness to take some good pic + Macro Mode 🙂

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“Value Investing” vs “Growing a Tree”

Investments are similar to small plants; they need time to grow and flourish. Most of the investors make a common mistake of not giving enough time to their investments to grow and take a good shape.

If you think about how you plant a sapling and manage it well for years so that it can become a fully grown tree so give you the fruits, the process of investing through shares and mutual funds is the same way.

Lets take each case and see the similarities between these two concepts.

Value investing vs growing tree

Growing Tree

You take a small plant (or a sapling), put it in soil and then water it, monitor it, take the weeds out, clean the plant and take care of it from pests which might be destroying your plant. It takes patience for the plant to grow and become a full grown tree. Then it servers you with the fruits which you deserve for your hard work and patience.

Imagine a different scenario: Now, you pick up a plant and put it in soil, 10 days later you go to see it expecting that you will get some fruits out of it. Obviously, you will be disappointed! It can’t give you any fruit and you think that either something is wrong with the plant or the soil is not the right type.

You take the plant out and put another plant, again 10 days later you come to see the plant, nothing happens. You take it out and put another and another and another and then you realize its not working. Now you think that the culprit is the type of soil, you take the same plant out of the soil and put it at another place which you think has better soil. But nothing happens there too!

Because your concentration and focus is on wrong things. It will definitely not grow if you don’t give it enough time to settle. It’s roots need to get hold of the soil, adapt to the conditions.

There will be different cycles of weather which will challenge and threaten the plant growth and you will have to take care of those scenarios. But one thing is sure that you have to give enough time to it.

Making Investments

When you invest in a share for Long term, the biggest mistake you tend to do is not give enough time for it to grow! If it does not move up quickly or as per your expectation, then you tend to think that you have picked a wrong share. You redeem your investment and again invest money in some other “better looking” share.

This keeps on happening, the prices of the share moves up, then down and it is never ending cycle. The volatile movements in share price gives sleepless nights to the investor and makes them believe that their investment might go in loss and hence its a good idea to liquidate it and finally shareholder sells it and takes the money out; Then again buys some other share.

This buying and selling goes on and on and one! The investor never gives one share enough time to grow. I am not saying that buying any arbitrary share and keeping it for long term will make you profits.

Picking good fundamentally strong stocks is a separate topic in itself. Here we are discussing about the scenario where assuming the investor has put his money in good stock but he just needs to give enough time to let it grow.

Later if the investor looks back and analyses his previously picked stocks, he will find that most of them have gone up or has crossed more than his expected levels. He then realizes that the only thing he missed was to give enough time for his investments and sit back tight without doing anything.

CASE STUDY

Imagine a person who invested Rs 10,000 in Wipro in year 1999 . What do you think the stock prices were in next 3 months or 6 months. What if the investor had sold the shares within a year because of a small loss or some good profit. In 1 or 3 yrs he might have got excellent returns ,which is fine. But the best returns comes when you give an excellent stock enough time. What do you think the stock was worth for in 28-29 yrs.

Rs 10,000 invested in 1979 was worth 200 Crores in next 28-29 yrs. The pick was good, no doubt! but it was the patience that got rewarded in the end.

What is it that makes it difficult for investors to keep patience with there investments?

Right from our birth, we are taught that life is ALL about winning, getting right and not making mistakes, being perfect. This has got inside our brains and its just not acceptable for us to be wrong, we want to achieve success, and be right.

When you invest in a share and it goes up in price, the first thing which comes to every mind is, “I should book it now and take the profit, else it can again go down and I may go in loss”. Actually in our mind we are saying “I should be out of this investment so that I can show others that I made a winning investment, or else I will make a loss and hence be called a loser”.

Have you faced this situation?

When you buy something at Rs 100 and it goes to Rs 99. Its so difficult to sell the share at Rs 1 Loss (that’s 1%). You just want it to come to Rs 100 back and then sell so that you are a winner and not a loser. But you only find it dropping further to Rs 90 and then Rs 80 and so on .. you are just helpless about the whole scenario.

Investments and Trading is not about Winning, its about making money and losing a little in case you are losing. Stop thinking in terms of Winning and Losing!!!

Think in terms of Keeping your losses at minimum and once you are in profits, let it run till you find a reason to sell the share. Selling a share just because its in profit is not a wise thing to do! You can make some profits out of it, but wealth is created by letting your profits run and run for a long enough time.

Note : This article from me was also appeared on Valuenotes.com .

Value Investing by using Nifty PE

Let us see some analysis of current market conditions. Most of the people are rushing to buy now for long term . but this may not be a market to buy for long term. I am myself Bullish now, but for short term not long term.

Nifty PE

I would not be surprised to see markets rise by over 10-15% more over next 1-2 months till the Budget  but sooner or later I expect.

– A nice correction if this is another bull market
– Bull rally coming to an end in the strong bear market

The simple analysis is with a simple and strong tool called PE ratio. PE ratio tells us how expensive or cheap is the current underlying. In other words what kind of value does the market provide us , irrespective of the price.

Historically Nifty has been considered and shown instances of being oversold in range of 10-13 and overbought in range of 20-25. Nifty has had a crash after after getting in the range of 20-25 and have rallied after touching the range of 10-13 .

OVERBOUGHT MOMENTS in Indian Markets

nifty vs PE

Click to enlarge , Data for last 10 yrs (Jan 1999 – 31st May 2009)

You will see that whenever nifty crossed 20. It was time to be cautious. its not exactly the time to go short sell, but at least book your partial profits and be cautious with further buying for long term.

Current situation : As I write this, Nifty PE is around 21. Its not a very good situation to madly buy for long term. Its a time when euphoria is at high point and it can take markets a little further. So you can jump in now with short term perspective, not long term !!, because markets may fall in some weeks or months.

Expect it. but don’t force it !! .

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OVERSOLD MOMENTS in Indian Markets

Who all missed the current Rally? I missed it. there are two reasons, I am a trader not an investor for long term (at least currently).

So I do not concentrate on it. But you could have not missed it if you had read this concept earlier and had the guts to go against the so called “experts on CNBC” who were talking about 5k or 6k for NIFTY some months back.

nifty vs PE

Click to enlarge , Data for last 10 yrs (Jan 1999 – 31st May 2009)

If you see the chart, you can see that after touching the PE levels of 11-13, markets have rallied back as it was too oversold !! Again, just touching these levels of PE does not signal a BUY, its only a signal to be cautious and make your mind for long side, and start the accumulation process without fear.

Markets will still make lower levels and experts on CNBC will still cry over economy conditions and world coming to an end. But market rewards the “risk assumption”, not the actions on obvious facts. You also have to decide how much money of your portfolio would you like to put in stock market after considering your risk-appetite.

What can we learn from this PE Concept?

“We can learn from history that we do not learn from History”

This is true for almost 95% of the long term investors all over the world. They do not learn things, they do not do any research, they do not go and read blogs or tons of informational sites, they just want tips from others and make money. the mathematical expectation of that kind of investing is negative and cant work for long term.

Lets develop a simple concept of PE based Investing. here it is:

BUY Signal : Once PE crosses below 13.

When NIFTY PE reached levels of 13 , start accumulating the stocks and invest your money in 4-5 installment over some months. Make sure that markets are going up and down and moving in a range . If PE crosses below 11 , its a must BUY !!

SELL Signal : Once PE crosses above 20.

Book the profit once NIFTY PE crosses above 20, Don’t book all profits at once. Book it in parts. PE crossing above 20 does not mean markets has to fall, its only an indication that markets may be oversold and now “smart people” will starting selling there shares to mad public.

Short sell the shares once PE and Markets start falling down from PE levels of 20. If PE crosses above 25, its a must SELL !!

There have been cases of PE going up to 25-28 levels. That will happen at the peak of strong bull markets like Jan 2008. In very strong bull markets you have to understand that PE will cross even above or below its extreme points. That’s the risk part of stock markets from which not even GOD can save you from !! 🙂

This is the time when your buying in parts and putting capital which you can afford to loose will help !!

Anyone who puts 100% of there money in stock market at once on one single time on a single bet has a secret affair with financial disaster which he/she himself is not aware of. So don’t put all your money at once. Only put a part of your capital at any point .

Where do you get the PE data for Indices? (Nifty and other Indices)

NIFTY data : https://www.nseindia.com/content/indices/ind_histvalues.htm

PE data : https://www.nseindia.com/content/indices/ind_pepbyield.htm

Note :

  • I have divided Nifty Value by 100 to make the graph look the way it is . In graphs , so on X axis if you see 40 , then read it as 4000 for nifty . but exact 40 for PE .
  • PE value will be separate for individual stocks as PE ratio for stock can go up or down for many other reasons . So if you are doing Stock analysis , see its historical PE values and find some pattern yourself . Innovate !!

I hope you have got a clear idea about Nifty PE. If you still have any confusion you can leave your query in our comment section. Also do let us know your opinion about this article.