Category: General

How safe private insurance companies are?

Posted on by Jagoinvestor

Many people have this concern about taking policies from Private Insurance companies. Let us try to understand about the factors which takes care of financial stability and ability to repay back customers there money.

In reality the only things differentiates one insurance company from other is the service the provide, there settlement track record.

Want to know why Insurance is Important ? Read this

Private insurance companies

Solvency Margin

It indicates how solvent a company is, or how prepared it is to meet unforeseen exigencies. It is the extra capital that an insurance company is required to hold to meet all the claims which arise.

In other words, Solvency margin refers to the excess amount of asset the insurance company has to maintain over its liabilities. Basically, it is the amount the insurer has to stash away in order to pay the claims during emergency.

IRDA requires the insurance companies to maintain a particular level of solvency margin for their smooth functioning.

Why is Solvency Margin there?

Companies have Assets and Liabilities. In some adverse situation, Assets are used to payoff all the Liabilities. Suppose there is company which has assets of 100, and liabilities of 100. In ideal case it would be able to payback the liabilities. But what if some adverse situation occurs and liability increases unexpectedly.

In that case company will be declared Insolvent (Bankrupt). This will be a bad situation which every customer does not want to experience.

Thats the reason, Solvency margin comes into picture, The excess margin maintained by the company provides that extra cover which may be required in case some thing totally unexpected happens.

by the way, i am now on twitter, so you can follow me and get updates on twitter.

What is the current Solvency Margin?

Current Solvency Margin is at 150% for Life Insurance Companies. It means for every Rs 100 insured the Insurer should have 150 with them.

Does it mean customers are totally safe?

You must have understood Solvency margin till now, but what if some bad event of High Magnitude happens and then Liabilities of company (the claims they have to settle) crosses there total assets + extra margin, in that case they will not be able to pay back, but the chances of this happening is very very small, and generally Solvency margin takes care of it.

Some bad unexpected event like Earthquake or some terrorist attack which kills say 1000’s of people can dramatically increase Insurer’s Liability, but in most of the cases its always taken care by choosing adequate Solvency margin. But there are always that small percentage chances of the Failure which you have to live with and we cant do anything.

So what does it mean for us common Investors while choosing Insurance Products?

Solvency Margin has to be maintained by all the Insurance Companies in India whether its Private or Public sector. All the companies are at same level, Some of them are old, some are new, some are big and some are small, but its same for all and everything is under IRDA norms and scrutiny.

So decisions based on How safe or unsafe a company is not relevant now . Risk is with every company and that is equal for all.

So for people who are going to take Term Insurance, the best thing is to go with the cheapest price and good record of claim settlement. There are many new players in this market who are so new that we don’t have any long track record . like for Religare Aegon (which is my favorite).

So for term Insurance, just break your cover into 2 parts and take insurance from 2 companies to diversify the risk further.

Read tips while taking Term Insurance

Summary

This is what many people never knew and they take there decisions based on just trust and how long company has been in existence. Huh, people trusted Satyam and Lehman Brothers also, so what !!

Investor alert – Beware of Mis-selling of financial products

Posted on by Jagoinvestor

From many years there has been a lot of mis-selling happening in some products and investors are getting trapped in it. In this article I’m going to tell you about mis-selling of financial products so that you avoid getting into this trap.

beware of Mis-selling

What is Mis-selling ?

Mis-selling means selling a product by giving a wrong picture of a product , it may include .

  • Giving Wrong Information
  • Giving Unrealistic Information (some times based on previous performance)
  • Not giving full information about the product.
  • Selling the product with proper information, even if it does not fit customers requirement.

Why is mis-selling happens?

Mis-selling happens because of following reasons

Low Awareness : Financial awareness is very low in our country and that’s the reason we do not understand products and how they can fit our requirement, Agents put a picture of a product in such a way that it looks the best product for us.

Competitive environment and Sales Targets : There is lot of pressure on agents and manager to show performance and sell products to meet there targets because of which mis-selling happens.

Last minute “Tax Rush” : People in India do not plan there Investments in Advance and hence at last moment they buy product just to save tax and which does not fit there requirement, and sellers take advantage of this.

Examples of Mis-sellings

ULIPS :

ULIPS are the classic example for mis-selling in this country, ULIPS are often projected as high growth, less risky products with “Insurance” in build. Ofter agents promise that ULIPS are risk free and it wont drop more than x% and return at least 10-15-20% in long run, which is nothing but marketing gimmick.

I have seen at least 100 people who have bought ULIPS and they don’t need it after 3rd year. They do not know why they bought it other than tax saving and when talked about how much Insurance cover they have, no one had more than 5 lacs.

One of my friend has ULIP for 50 yrs !!! not sure what he will do !! One of my friend has insurance of 1.25 lacs !! Insurance of 1.25 lacs !! Really, what does that mean … His/her life cover is just 1.25 lacs, he earns 5 lacs yearly !!

Read : who needs ULIPS ?

Mutual Funds

Even mutual funds are mis-sold, that happens when a agent recommends you a mutual fund which does not fit your requirement. Often agents recommend mutual funds which are too risky for customers without understanding there risk-appetite.

Read how to choose mutual fund ?

Insurance

One of the worst thing which has happened in India is that Agents never tell customers about Term-insurance, which is ultimate requirement for Indians, This happens because of penny like commission agents get on Term policies, that’s the reason they often lure customers with products like ULIPS and Endowment or Money back policies, which do not insure people to the extent they need it.

Agents don’t explain the importance of Insurance and only make them feel that they loose money in Term Insurance and we get lured by it, because we love “not loosing money” more than “little chances of dying and our families suffering”, this happens because people do not have enough foresight to look into future and question themselves about what will happen if they die without giving enough cover to there families.

Watch this video to know a horrific story of an insurance mis-selling:

Read why Life Insurance is so important

So like this Mis-selling happens in many products.

What can we do and should do?

“Prevention is better than cure”, this saying also applies in Investing, I know of people who took wrong products and then have to live with it for 10-20- years like Endowment plans. (Read why Endowment plans are not good)

So the only thing we can do is to educate our self to the level where no one can take advantage of our ignorance. Once you come to a level, where you understand importance of things in investing and managing you money, then no one can mis-sell you the products.

One of the recent product which i will categorise in Misold category is “Jeevan astha”, The reason I will say it was mis-sold is because it tried to put its picture in a very fuzzy way and tried to put things which were confusing to general public.

Conclusion

Don’t Take any product just because it look good or is recommended by someone (not even me). Do your research and do some study, it does not take more than 1 hr to search the net and read about it, or ask some knowledgeable person whom you trust about the product.

1 or 2 hrs to study can save you pain of years, So don’t be lazy, when it comes to money no one is yours, its only you who can save you from mis-selling.

So wake up .. Jago Investor 🙂 Jago !!

The basics of Trading with example of Reliance – For beginners

Posted on by Jagoinvestor

What is Trading?

I see many people who want to try there hands in trading .

Trading means buying and selling something with a short tenure in mind. Short tenure can be day, week or months. You can trade Stocks, Derivatives like Futures or Options or you can try out Commodities or currencies too.

The sad part is that many people just enter this trading business without much preparation and knowledge and burn there hands like anything. they continue loosing money every day, week, month and cant figure out why they are loosing.

trading

Understand some things :

Trading is a profession, and its highly rewarding in every ways. BUT !! Trading is one of the hardest thing one can ever attempt, trading is simple but not easy. It takes years for one to master it and become successful as a trader.

If you are trying to learn trading and want to do this in your life. I can suggest somethings:

  • Start Learning about markets and do it for at least 1 year (not 1 month)
  • Learn Technical Analysis and try to do some analysis on your own.
  • Read good books and make sure you have read it really well.

Once you have done this. Then you should paper trade for some time, may be 2 months. After you have paper traded and can see that you can trade well on paper, then start with small money (you must be ready to loose this money) … Do some real trading with this money and see how you perform.

Trading is a highly rewarding and satisfying profession. You can earn good money and you are your own boss. Trading can be fun and challenging. But Trading is the most challenging and highly risky profession one can attempt as I already said.

I have put up a simple Technical Analysis Example for Reliance, It discusses buying or selling Signal for Reliance in coming days. You can see it here

Why Technical Analysis?

Technical analysis helps in taking much better decisions for buying and selling. Its a must for short term traders, however it also helps people who have longer time horizon, With Technical Analysis you can make better entries, exits and manage your decisions well.

Some reading Material for people who want to learn technical Analysis is here

1. https://www.investorsintelligence.com/x/why_technical_analysis.html

2. https://www.cmsfx.com/en/forex-education/online-forex-course/chapter-3-technical-tools/technical-analysis/

Your investment must be the way you want your life to be – Simple and Easy.

Posted on by Jagoinvestor

Keep it Simple Please

Lot of people thinks that if they choose complex investment products then they can generate a good return. But then key to successful investment is make it as simple and easy as you want your life to be.

There are many products available in markets , Some are extremely easy to understand and strongest. While others are complex and on an average not very easy to understand by common public.

Simple and Easy Investment

In Life, simple things works best. We all want our lives to be simple and easy, We don’t want lots of complications. In the same way we should use simple products while choosing our investments. Simple things works in the best manner.

There is a tendency of creating complex products because general public feels, that because they are complex and not easy to understand, they must be working very differently and in a smart way. This is far from truth.

Easy to understand products like Term Plans, PPF and Mutual funds works brilliantly. You don’t need ULIPS or product like Jeevan Astha and Endowment plans with lots of stupid clauses.

What happens when u choose simple products?

Your life is easy, you can understand them better, track them better and change it in a much better way.

Imagine a person A with ULIP or Endowment policy for Insurance needs and B with Term Insurance.

What are the benefits B enjoys?

– He understands every things about his products the reason being there is very less to understand. (If you die, your family gets money, if you don’t, you get nothing).

– He can choose to stop his stop his policy any time he wants (if he does not feel the requirement)

– He can change it to some other policy later in life if he wants.

There are many things like this, where as in ULIPS and Endowment policies , people are stuck with no mercy if they cant pay premiums some 2-3 yrs in a row. There are too many clauses and different types of sum assured, and things like those.

What is the Learning?

Take easy to understand and simple products which look Plain Vanilla, Complex products have nothing extra than complexity. Just make sure you understand easy products well and how to use them well. Your investing life would look much like your investments. Keep them Simple.

What can Repiblic Day teach us about Financial Planning

Posted on by Jagoinvestor

India gained its Independence in 1947 . At that time India was free , and ready to grow on its own , with its own decisions . But it was not possible without a set of guidelines to guide the decision making process .

Success comes when you are disciplined and have a decision making process. On Jan 26 , 1950 our Constitution came into effect and now we had laws for different things .

Financial Planning

We knew exactly what we have to do when thing happens . We had a road map to follow. From there on we progressed and have came a long way . We can now say that we are much better than we were at that time and we continue to grow and make better decisions.

We need amendments from time to time and that helps us to change the bad laws and adapt to new situations.

How do we relate it to Investing?

We can learn from anything … really anything . Let us try to map each event discussed above and relate it to our Investing world .

1. Gaining Independence

When we get a job and start earning on our own, we are full of confidence. we are independent, We don’t need to ask for money from our parents. Rather we have to support them. We have responsibilities. There are many goals for us like buying house, car, saving for our retirement, Marriage etc etc.

2. Republic day

This is the day when we understand that we need to do our financial planning and have a set of guidelines to guide our decision making regarding our investments .When we know how exactly we are going to invest to achieve our goals, we have a clear road map and time duration .

We just need to follow it with discipline.

Example : If a young 25 yrs old want to retire at 55 with 2 crores at the end . He can take two approaches .

a) He can try to save money here and there, some month he can invest 10k, and some month he can skip it and down the line, he has a vague idea where is he going and how is he making progress. This kind of approach often leads to failure, because there is no road map and sometime will come when you will have no idea whats happening.

b) Second approach can be very easy . You have to make sure that you understand some thing very well and be clear about somethings. Those are

– Equity outperforms every other asset class in long term .
– Equity in long term has given 15%+ returns and its possible in future too .
– You should have understanding about the power of compound interest.

Now when you are clear crisp about this idea , then you can use a simple compound interest formula to see , how much you need to invest every month for rest 30 years (55 – 25) , which can generate 2 crores at 15% annual return .

The formula is

Final_amount = monthly_contribution * (1+rate) * ((1+rate)^months – 1)/rate

where
rate = monthly rate = 15% / 12 = .15/12 = .0125
months = total number of months you will invest = 30 * 12 = 360

Now you can calculate what monthly_contribution fits the values .

The amount comes to little below 3,000 per month .

Which means if you invest 3,000 per month for next 30 years , you can achieve your retirement target easily without fail. (Invest in Equity Diversified Mutual funds to target 15% returns for long tenure).

When you do this, you go with a plan (constitution) and dont have to doubt your self and you will not get lost. Just follow it with discipline without fail.

3. Amendments

Just like amendments are made in Law , because of change in environment and situations . You also may have to change you plans with market change and new products coming in (this happens rarely , because fundamental things remain same) .

Summary and Learning

What I want to point out here is that just earning money and being independent in not enough and cant make you successful with money , Discipline and proper understanding with good planning will help .

So if you are Independent but have not put your constitution in place , do it soon to really succeed . Make this day as your teacher and learn from it . Don’t be afraid of mistakes .

“Success is a ladder where every step is made up of Failure . If you cant fail !! , Winning will not be easy ” .
Manish

Secure Your Family , Risk Management Part 2

Posted on by Jagoinvestor

Why do we invest ?

Answer : For ourself, for our Family, for there better future , for our kids , for there better life , for financial independence, at last the answer comes down to Our Family.

But, before investing, do we make sure that , do we secure our family at first place against any risk and problems which may arise. You can invest in great things, whatever it is like Mutual funds, ULIPS, direct shares, gold, blah blah blah …

Why Do We Invest

But what if some bad things happens to you and your family is left behind with no money at present, what is your wife, kids or your parents meet some accident and go to hospital. Is that more important or creating your wealth for future.

What is more important is to first concentrate on “Now” and if everything is taken care of, only then think about the future. How do you secure your family.

There are two things :

1. Life Insurance for yourself (assuming you are the bread winner)
2. Health Insurance for your entire family, especially if your have old parents, or going to become old in some years 🙂 .

1. Life Insurance : Read https://finance-and-investing.blogspot.com/2008/06/life-insurance-revisited-one-of-my-good.html for understanding it better .

2. Health Insurance : Read https://finance-and-investing.blogspot.com/2008/07/health-insurance-what-is-health-or.html

Let me talk about a case study .

– Robert is in his 30’s earning 5,00,000/Annam. He is married and has 2 kids .

Robert needs life insurance of around 50 lacs to secure him Family . also he should take a health cover of 4-5 lacs each .

He can take a term cover of 50 lacs for 6367 . He can also take Health Insurance of Rs 4 lacs each for him , his wife and his 2 kids (family floater plan) @Rs 5000 (Check click2insure.in for these quotes) .

Means , he can take both of these things at 21,000 / year . It comes out to be 4.2% of his yearly Income.

Now think , can you spend 5% of your yearly salary for safety and coverage of your Family ? I thing YES !!

Once you do this , you are free of any tension , and now you can use your 95% money to generate long term wealth for your family and there security . You can effectively use your 95% , only if you use your 5% for your risk management .

There can be many cases when you dont cover your family and things can go wrong, like

1. You invest heavily in Mutual funds or ULIP’s or what ever and in 2 years you die in an accident, what will happen then …

2. You invest your money in ELSS (tax saving mutual funds) for last 2 yrs and have life insurance also , but suddenly you wife meets an accident and you require 5 lacs for an operation , but you never took Health Insurance .

Investing your money is important, Covering your risks are Vital !!

Live in the moment, “now” is the truth … Keep you family happy with covering then and yourself now .

Some tips :

– Take a life cover ASAP if you have not taken it yet.

– Buy a family floater plan if your family has spouse and kids, for Parents you need to take a separate individual policy, as parents are not covered in Family floater plans.

– You can also claim tax benefit for this under section 80D.

– Don’t feel that life insurance from other companies (other than LIC) are very risky and anything like that . Insurance sector is now getting mature enough and govt is taking all measures to confirm that the companies which enter Insurance Industry are from great Business families and conform with the guidelines . But its true that LIC will always be the safest (100%) .. but 99.999% is also safe …

Summary

Its more important to cover your Life risk and family Health risks first before any investments for future , when you put your money in Insurance and Health Insurance you are already taking steps for strong invesments for future which is safety of your family , which is of supreme importance . Dont ignore it … Take appropriate cover .

Game of Trading , Risk Management Part 1

Posted on by Jagoinvestor

Lets play a game, the name of the game is “Game of Trading”. I am stock market and you are investor. You have got 2 chances of investing you money, One time I will give you 200% return and other time I will give you -80%, or in reverse order, so it can either be

200%, -80%

OR

-80%, 200%

You have to decide in advance that how much percentage of your total capital you will invest each time (invest capital) and how much you will keep safe money (safe capital), you have to decide for both the times in the start only.

Lets analyse different cases.

Case A : You choose invest capital as 100% first time and 20% for next chance

Case A.1 : Return was -80% first time and 200% next time.


Case A.2 : Return was 200% first time and -80% next time .


Case B : You choose invest capital as 20% first time and 100% for next chance

Case B.1 : Return was -80% first time and 200% next time.

Case B.2 : Return was 200% first time and -80% next time.

You can see that at last A.1 = B.2 and A.2 = B.1 , so it means that order of your invest capital ratio does not affect your result , it both the cases it can either become 28 or 252 (depending on the return order) …

What should you do?

100% and 20% choice will always loose in long run, if you play this game over and over again for long run, Understand that in this game, you can make it “high risk high return” Game or “Extremely no risk, low return game”, And your choice of your invest percentage will decide which game is it.

Characteristic of “High return High risk game” : Its possible to make great money in short term, but in long run you will loose.

Characteristic of “Low risk, low return game” : You will Not make great return in short term, but with compounding effect, you are bound to be a winner in long run.

Let see if we can choose a ratio (invest percentage) can give us some profit irrespective of the return order.

Lets choose 25% invest capital :

Case A.1 : Return was -80% first time and 200% next time.


Case A.2 : Return was 200% first time and -80% next time.

You can see that in any case your 100 becomes 120, which is 20% return.

What if you choose 80% invest capital : In that case at last you will have 93.6 (calculate yourself). So what should be the best percentage capital to deploy each time in this game.

I tried to make an Equation, with all variables

p = profit times (2 or 200/100)
l = loss times ( -.8 or -80%/100 )
C = Capital at the start
T = Trade factor (.25 means, 25% of the capital will be invested at any time)

We want to find optimum T, given any p and l (assuming that the trade will be done 2 times)

So, If you calculate the total capital after the 2 trades (do the math), you will get

Total capital = C (1 + pT) * (1 + lT)

So our original capital is getting multiplied by (1+pT)*(1+lT), and we have to maximize this number.

lets say I = (1+pT) * (1+lT)
I = 1 + plT^2 + pT + lT

If we do some differentiation here with respect to T (people who don’t know differentiation, just leave it), and put dI/dT = 0

2plT + p + l = 0
T = – (p + l) / 2pl

So the best valeuof T is -(p+l)/2pl ..

For our earlier example , p = 2 , l = -.8

we get – (2 – .8)/ (2 * 2 * -.8) = .375

Which means, 37.5% of capital will be invested everytime, and with that our capital will become 122.5 and that is the max you can make without risk.

What if return = 200% and -90% , in that case p = 2 , l = -.9 , so T = 2 – .9 / 2 * 2 * .9 = 1.1/3.6 = 11/36, means investing capital will be 30.555% always and that will give us max return.

What is the point i am trying to make?

In any given situation of making money, there may be a big risk of loosing it, we should always use these kind of tools and always be safe. Don’t try to be very bold in stock markets.

People who make killing in the start often get killed somewhere on the way and people who make respectable and sufficient money with satisfaction become winner over long term.

Summary

When you do Investment or do trading, you should never put all your capital into it, one bad trade or investment and you will be ruined forever, better to risk only that much capital which can not take out of of the game, but just hurts a bit.

Take small and risk-less profits if possible, Investing and trading is all game of probabilities. Use math’s and logic to take smart decisions like discussed in this article.

“There are old investors and there are bold investors, but not both”.

Check out this blog for Risk Management Part 2.

 

The Straw That Broke the Camel’s Back

Posted on by Jagoinvestor

One of my friend is fond of shares and options trading , from a capital of Rs.50,000 , he grew it to Rs 2,00,000 , whereas I am almost at the same place from where I had started because I do some thing called “Risk Management” … Every time I take a trade or invest in anything . This is how I go about it .

– Either I don’t take the trade
– Or I take the trade, but work on risk management, I hedge it using PUTS or invest less in that.

Because of these two things I either miss big profits or make very small profits. managing risk involves cost and that’s the cost you have to pay for trying to be “safe”.

Last week we both purchased some thing which gave him 50% return, but gave me just 7-8% return over my investment. The reason was that I also hedged my position and tried to be “smart”, which my friend didn’t Acknowledge.

There are many incidents like this, because of which I always lag behind him when it comes to performance, and I am always ahead of him in being safe which never helped until now.

Jan 7 2008 :

10:30 AM :

Markets were a bit up and things looked good , He bought Satyam’s Calls with almost all of his capital, He has good intuition of which options may work and which may not, but I tried to convince him that buying a PUT on a lower strike price will save him in case he is wrong.

But to my expectation, he was “sure” that it would work, He put SL at 175 just to show me because of the fact that he knew it wont be touched at least today.

11:30-12:00 PM :

Satyam Fiasco news came in and within no time Share was down 30-40%, No surprise that even SL was not entertained … because prices never stopped .. everyone was just in a rush … With in some time Share plunged to 60-70, My friends calls were worthless and It doesn’t look that it will now move up from this point.

In short He is dead … He is out of this game now … He has 20,000 cash and all 1,70,000 or 1,80,000 he had put in calls are not even worth 4,000 – 5,000.

Price of Satyam 120 PA Jan 29

11:00 AM : Rs.1
2:30 PM : Rs.90

Return : 9,000% in 3 hrs.

What is the point I’m trying to make?

Everybody likes to make big profits and we should but not at the cost of risk of blowing up all our capital. Its not just related to Share markets or options. It also applies to Debt market, Mutual funds.

Do everything you can do to minimize or avoid the risk. Its very true that returns comes with risk. I am not saying “not to take risks”, i am talking about “managing risk”.

“Managing Risk” is the biggest measure you should take if you are in this field.

In some of the next posts we will try to see what are the different kind of “risk management” techniques and its importance.

Tax Exemptions Rules , Who is included and who is not

Posted on by Jagoinvestor

Following is a chart showing the list of people for whom you can claim deductions for tax exemption. For example, if you pay the LIC Insurance premium, you can claim if the got premium paid for.

  • Yourself
  • Spouse
  • Children

For further details … see this table … Click to enlarge it.

To know about the tax slab and an example for calculating tax .. see : http://finance-and-investing.blogspot.com/2008/04/tax-information-for-2008.html

Financial Resolutions for 2009

Posted on by Jagoinvestor

Hi Friends, Happy New Year to all of you. As this new year is coming, Let us discuss some things, they are:

1. Financial Resolutions for 2009
2. The outlook of Asset Classes in 2009 and onwards.

Financial resolution

Financial Resolutions for 2009

Let us all make sure that we will do better than the previous year and make some changes.

#1. Adopt the attitude of Expenses = Salary – Savings instead of Savings = Salary – Expenses

#2. Learn more and more about investing to at least up to a level, where I can take my decisions without any help of others and also be able to help someone else.

#3. Learn all the basic taxation rules and investing rules.

#4. Not take decisions whose Risk/reward ratio does not suit me, even if there is no risk in some investment, its return should at least match your goals.

Person 1: Person not investing his money in any thing (just putting it in the bank) and having a desire of getting a 15% return and risk appetite of the same.

Person 2: Another person investing in Equity for a return of 50% in a year, but he actually requires and can be fine with a 15% return.

Both the people here are wrong and are not doing correctly. They must invest in a way that satisfies both there return/risk ratio.

#5. Will not get trapped in useless products just because someone else thinks so, we will do our own analysis, take suggestions from reliable sources and people with knowledge and only then invest our hard-earned money.

Outlook and suggestions for Asset classes in 2009

Let us see some asset classes and let’s have a quick view of it.

#1. Mutual Funds: The situation now is little under control, with a downward bias for the first quarter, but things should be good by the year-end and then we can see a good rally there after. Better to invest though SIP only.

#2. Direct Equity (shares): Make sure you buy shares only if you have long term view and do not want to speculate for short term .. You can buy some very good shares now and hold it for the next 5-20 yrs, and I am sure they will return fortune. The best time after 2003 is NOW !! But better buy on dips …

If you want to invest 100, make sure you break it in 3-4 parts and invest on dips … its like following SIP on our own. Metals (safe) and Real estate (little risky for short term) can be a good bet for long term investments.

#3. Real Estate: No comments … There are still chances of further correction … But people who do not want to buy it for investment can still invest if it suits there requirement and budget.

#4. Bank FD’s: People looking for short term investments like 6 months – 1.5 yrs can put their money in FD’s… The interest rates offered are good and with inflation coming down, it will be a fair investment.

#5. Derivatives (Futures and Options): There are many people who are now trying these instruments, do not understand the risk associated, Please understand very clearly that these are Atom bombs in the Finance field … You can either kill yourself with it or make a Killing out of it …

If you want to do it .. better learn about it .. prepare heavily and only then enter .. Else defeat is almost certain. Some of the biggest financial companies have gone bankrupt over night because of derivatives.

See:

The use of derivatives can result in large losses due to the use of leverage, or borrowing. Derivatives allow investors to earn large returns from small movements in the underlying asset’s price. However, investors could lose large amounts if the price of the underlying moves against them significantly.

There have been several instances of massive losses in derivative markets, such as:

  • The need to recapitalize insurer American International Group (AIG) with $85 billion of debt provided by the US federal government[4]. An AIG subsidiary had lost more than $18 billion over the preceding three quarters on Credit Default Swaps (CDS) it had written.[5] It was reported that the recapitalization was necessary because further losses were foreseeable over the next few quarters.
  • The loss of $7.2 Billion by Société Générale in January 2008 through misuse of futures contracts.
  • The loss of US$6.4 billion in the failed fund Amaranth Advisors, which was long natural gas in September 2006 when the price plummeted.
  • The loss of US$4.6 billion in the failed fund Long-Term Capital Management in 1998.
  • The bankruptcy of Orange County, CA in 1994, the largest municipal bankruptcy in U.S. history. On December 6, 1994, Orange County declared Chapter 9 bankruptcy, from which it emerged in June 1995. The county lost about $1.6 billion through derivatives trading. Orange County was neither bankrupt nor insolvent at the time; however, because of the strategy, the county employed it was unable to generate the cash flows needed to maintain services. Orange County is a good example of what happens when derivatives are used incorrectly and positions liquidated in an unplanned manner; had they not liquidated they would not have lost any money as their positions rebounded.[citation needed] Potentially problematic use of interest-rate derivatives by US municipalities has continued in recent years. See, for example:[6]
  • The Nick Leeson affair in 1994

Also See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_trading_losses

#6. Gold: Gold has lost its shine a bit now and can not be considered the best investment you can make … Still a small part can be in a portfolio, but not more than 5%.

#7. Debt Mutual Funds: People can invest in these debt funds also if their investment horizon is less than 1 yrs (invest for short term goals).

#8. Insurance: Any one who has still not taken insurance and still finds that he/she needs to take it .. please take is ASAP. There should not be any delay in taking Life Insurance ever.

Some Notes on Inflation:

Inflation may go down below 0% in 2009, because of speedy fall in commodity and crude prices.

Source: https://www.zeenews.com/nation/2008-12-28/494368news.html

Economy and Job Losses:

India may see some effect of job losses and slow down in 2009 … Corporate results are expected to be devastating in the first and second quarters of 2009 at least … But still, India is among the top growing economies in the world. So we must not concentrate on the short term. India’s future is Great and unquestionable.

Summary: 2009 will be a good year, it is an excellent year and we will not do mistakes if we have done in 2008 and before. we will learn more and use our money in a better way from now onwards.