probability of market coming down on a particular day…

POSTED BY Rajendran ON October 9, 2010 1:28 am COMMENTS (7)

I am wondering whether anyone did any research on the probability of market coming down on a particular day…

With my very limited knowledge mostly Friday market would close it RED. Any view on this?

Regards,

Rajendran 

7 replies on this article “probability of market coming down on a particular day…”

  1. Any trading day can be the dark day. We already had “Dark Monday”, “Dark Friday”, “Dark Wednesday” & so on… How will you compare darkness?

    I remember reading some articles about Gann. He was genius of his time & was able to pin-point exact date & many times time also, of fall of particular stock or market as a whole. He combined his knowledge of astrology, maths of pyramids of Egypt with technical charts.

    Hope it will help you.
    InvestmentKit

  2. Rajendran

    its a nice topic to discuss , which there is no such research or study i am aware of that shows this , but one can do it using the past sensex data

    One reason which I can think of friday being more down is that Its a end of week and all the traders might want to close the positions to have a nice weekend 🙂

    Manish

  3. prabeesh says:

    Well you asked for the probability..then its very simple to guess, since answer is either Yes or No

    so it 1/2 or 50% 🙂 for all the days 😛

    1. Prabeesh

      On what basis do you say that its 50% ? Why cant it be 60% and 40% on Friday ? What factors did you take in mind ?

      Manish

      1. prabeesh says:

        @mainsh

        No factors considered its plain probability since answer (without considering any factor )is Yes or No in any given day,just like toss of coin it will be 1/2 or 50%

        this is said with my limited knowledge of probability,,correct me if i am wrong 🙂

        1. Prabeesh

          To some extent you are correct, but in question its asked for Friday and being the end of the week , it might have some special consequences on a buyer or seller mind , see my reply you will understand .

          Also your answer can be verified using the following technique

          – Take all the fridays data and see how many times markets went up and down , If its approx 50:50 till date , then its 50% by the law of numbers . However if it is 60:40 or 55:45 (for a very large sample, like past 15-20 yrs) , then its not exactly 50%

          Manish

  4. bharat shah says:

    not researched , but only guess. unless some solid reason to go up, as two day’s market closing, squaring up the position/profit taking for short term traders may be leading the markets to red on friday, being last working for the week.

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