POSTED BY October 9, 2010 1:28 am COMMENTS (7)

ONI am wondering whether anyone did any research on the probability of market coming down on a particular day…

With my very limited knowledge mostly Friday market would close it RED. Any view on this?

Regards,

Rajendran

Any trading day can be the dark day. We already had “Dark Monday”, “Dark Friday”, “Dark Wednesday” & so on… How will you compare darkness?

I remember reading some articles about Gann. He was genius of his time & was able to pin-point exact date & many times time also, of fall of particular stock or market as a whole. He combined his knowledge of astrology, maths of pyramids of Egypt with technical charts.

Hope it will help you.

InvestmentKit

Rajendran

its a nice topic to discuss , which there is no such research or study i am aware of that shows this , but one can do it using the past sensex data

One reason which I can think of friday being more down is that Its a end of week and all the traders might want to close the positions to have a nice weekend 🙂

Manish

Well you asked for the probability..then its very simple to guess, since answer is either Yes or No

so it 1/2 or 50% 🙂 for all the days 😛

Prabeesh

On what basis do you say that its 50% ? Why cant it be 60% and 40% on Friday ? What factors did you take in mind ?

Manish

@mainsh

No factors considered its plain probability since answer (without considering any factor )is Yes or No in any given day,just like toss of coin it will be 1/2 or 50%

this is said with my limited knowledge of probability,,correct me if i am wrong 🙂

Prabeesh

To some extent you are correct, but in question its asked for Friday and being the end of the week , it might have some special consequences on a buyer or seller mind , see my reply you will understand .

Also your answer can be verified using the following technique

– Take all the fridays data and see how many times markets went up and down , If its approx 50:50 till date , then its 50% by the law of numbers . However if it is 60:40 or 55:45 (for a very large sample, like past 15-20 yrs) , then its not exactly 50%

Manish

not researched , but only guess. unless some solid reason to go up, as two day’s market closing, squaring up the position/profit taking for short term traders may be leading the markets to red on friday, being last working for the week.