Exit from Stock Market if you have long positions

POSTED BY somasekhararaom ON April 17, 2012 9:46 pm COMMENTS (12)


I am expecting double digit Inflation within 3 months by today RBI Bold move on repo rate. So exit from market or go for FMCG. There is a heavy thread to the Banking Sector by AirLines bail out , collecting deposits at high interest rates. There is also high risk to the govt by low oil prices.


12 replies on this article “Exit from Stock Market if you have long positions”

  1. Hi, everyone!
    I just found the article about CONTROL OIL STOCK PRICES. It may be interesting for you)
    Good luck, dear investors!)

  2. somasekhar says:


    I think worrest is over because all are negative news flows in market . If you want to invest lumpsum money, go for L & T Finance. Its near to all time low despite announced good results and many companies are available at discounted price now.

    Hi Ramesh,

    Trivedi might be useless fellow, but he is thousands times good than our Andhra politicians.



  3. somasekhar says:


    I never told anyone to stop sip’s. But yes, we can’t predict the future. This is only for people who invest in direct stocks. I clearly mentioned about inflation level after 3 months. So lets see what will happens.

  4. somasekhar says:

    I have many doubts on our system. What if we experience high inflation? What about the banks if they don’t cut interest rates on deposits? What if govt don’t hike oil price? Why should govt provide subsidy on oil?

    I don’t understand people really have a choice to ask govt to reduce oil price?

    1. TheZionView says:


      That is the exact reason one should never predict the future. Just keep you investment and SIP running 🙂

  5. somasekhar says:


    Few days before, I replied to one question that it was the right time to enter banking sectors fund. that’s the reason I wrote here. Now people are not ready to face tough time like 2011.

    Mamata is not our Didi. She ruining our entire system. She doesn’t allow railway charges hike, oil price hike, no fdi allows, but she will allow free food, free…. etc. We need politicians like trivedi, narasimharao…. etc.

    1. Ramesh says:

      I am not a fan of Didi. But she is not alone responsible for ruining things. After all, she is the elected representative in our democracy. Plus, there are other culprits too (read Pranab and others, MMS is not at all in the thick of things). So the entire parliament is responsible, with the ultimate responsibility lying with the people who elected them.

      Lol @ politicians like trivedi. Useless fellow actually. You should read about things which he did earlier than the final “supposedly brave” act. Just wait for some time, when you will see what he got in the end.

      Narsimharao was just forced to do things, since the economic condition of country was battered (it was a forced hand, not some brilliant long term thinking, since MMS is the same guy).

      But, as Peter Lynch has said, “”If you spend more than 13 minutes analyzing economic and market forecasts, you’ve wasted 10 minutes.””

  6. Dear Somshekhar, You said Oil Price hike. If indeed Mr. MMS & Pranab Da & Mrs. Sonia Gandhi can show some glimpse of their spine, what ‘ll you think about the possible move of our dear Didi – Mamta Di.

    Take your own pick. I have no view for Mr. market for next 3-6-9-12-15-18-24-36-60 months.

    Yes for 120 months I can hope (not predict) that Mr. Market ‘ll play Santa & ‘ll distribute sweets (Read 10-100 times returns for our invested money.).



  7. somasekhar says:

    Hi, I expected govt would hike oil prices after budget to control inflation. But they did not. hike in service tax and excise duty in budget will effect from April 2012 and we experience it from next month inflation. On other side, govt has to collect money from banks to bail out airlines and banks have to reduce interest rates on loans by rate cut. If you observe today Subbrao’s speech, he clearly pointed out the necessity of hike in oil price to control inflation. I think we can’t see another rate cut in near term by today bold move. High inflation leads weak rupee and high gold price movements. So govt has only one medicine : Hike oil price. So we can go for FMCG, Pharma and IT Sector and avoid bank sector. But banking Sector always lead markets. So we may see cracks in markets again until hike in crude price.

    1. Ramesh says:

      I hope most people think like this. 😉

      Since market moves opposite to what Most people think it would.


    2. Somasekhar – Such times are ripe for picking relative bargains, if one takes a contrarian view.

      Agreed there is some uncertainty ahead and the Guv said he would not hesitate to raise rates in future if needed. But the problem with exiting the market fully is we dont know when to reenter. There will be false rallies and sell offs and when a real rally happens we relate to past and say this rally will also fizzle out and miss out on gains. To borrow Peter Lynch’s words: “Far more money has been lost waiting in the sidelines than in the markets themselves”

  8. Thanks for that great short term forecast. How will you know it is a good time to reenter the market? Right after 3 months from now? WIll you come back to update this forum?!

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